MARCH 1 — This could have been another boring Oscar season with a clear frontrunner for another boring Oscar sweep, but chances of that happening to Emilia Perez (which had 13 nominations) were basically torpedoed when old tweets from Karla Sofia Gascon, which appeared to be expressing controversial views on Muslims, George Floyd and diversity at the Oscars, resurfaced on the internet, which more or less led to her “cancellation” by netizens worldwide.
It’s a real shame, because she could have made history as the first transgender actor to win the Best Actress award at the Oscars, which many thought was a real possibility when she was announced as one of the nominees.
With the strange absence of Dune: Part Two and Challengers in the major categories, and with the “cancellation” of Emilia Perez, what’s left are a bunch of smaller films duking it out against each other, and while the precursor awards have more or less decided who the winners will be at the Oscars, there are still a few categories that will be very closely contested.
These predictions are not about what I want or hope to happen, hence my inclusion of who I think will win (based on the patterns that can be discerned from the precursor awards) and who I think should win (which is my personal preference).
And, due to space constraints, let’s just go with the main categories, shall we?
Best Picture
If there was no controversy surrounding Emilia Perez, it might just be one of the favourites for the big prize this year.
As it is, the precursor awards have pointed towards a clear favourite to win this one, and that is Sean Baker’s raucous and lovely Anora, which had already won at the Directors Guild of America (DGA), the Producers Guild of America (PGA) and the Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards earlier.
The Brutalist might be the critics’ favourite, but if there’s going to be an upset here, it would come from Conclave, which is the most classically Oscar-bait movie of the whole bunch and which have made a late rally by winning at the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, but I think Anora has this one sewn up already.
Should win: Anora
Will win: Anora
Best Director
This looks to be a straight fight between Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), with Baker winning at the DGA (not to mention the Palme d’Or at Cannes as well) and Corbet at the Golden Globes and BAFTA Awards.
With Anora being the much more lovable film between the two, and the fact that in the 76-year history of the DGA Awards, only eight winners have not taken home the Best Director Oscar, I think this one will go to Baker as well.
Should win: Sean Baker
Will win: Sean Baker
Best Actor
After winning the Best Actor award at every important precursor awards before this, Adrien Brody finally has a challenger when Timothee Chalamet swept up that prize at the recent SAG awards.
Could it be a case of too little, too late? And the fact that Chalamet is still a young man, at 29, does not bode very well, as the Oscars seems pretty hesitant to give this award to young men.
Another Best Actor award, 22 years after winning it for The Pianist, awaits Brody for his work in The Brutalist.
Should win: Ralph Fiennes
Will win: Adrien Brody
Best Actress
Mikey Madison deserves to win this one, and after winning at the BAFTA and Independent Spirit Awards, there might be a case to be made for her to win this, but with Demi Moore having already won at the SAG, Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards, coupled with the fact that her role and performance in The Substance really is the role of a lifetime, with very scant chance that she’d get another chance to grab this award again, this one is Moore’s to lose.
Should win: Mikey Madison
Will win: Demi Moore
Best Supporting Actor
Every single one of the nominees here this year have given great performances, but Kieran Culkin is the overwhelming favourite here, having won every single one of the precursor awards during this Oscar season.
Every single one. It would be madness if he suddenly loses here.
Should win: Yura Borisov
Will win: Kieran Culkin
Best Supporting Actress
Despite the storm caused by Gascon for the rest of Emilia Perez’s Oscar campaign, Zoe Saldana has swept the precursor awards, just like Culkin, and is the overwhelming favourite here as well.
It would be madness if she suddenly loses here. And yes, there might be noises that Isabella Rossellini is waiting in the wings for her performance in Conclave, but how can you even compare an eight-minute appearance versus the singing, dancing and acting (in Spanish, mind you) that Saldana did in Emilia Perez?
Should win: Zoe Saldana
Will win: Zoe Saldana
Best Original Screenplay
Seven of the last 10 Best Picture winners also won a screenplay award, so logic dictates that if Anora is the favourite for a Best Picture award, then this award should go to its writer as well, Sean Baker.
Another statistic to ponder – ever since the Academy expanded the Best Picture field to more than five nominees, every screenplay winner (original and adapted) has come from a movie nominated for Best Picture, which narrows this down to Anora, The Brutalist and The Substance, and out of these, I think only The Substance can at least be lauded for its creative screenplay. Anora it is, then.
Should win: Anora
Will win: Anora
Best Adapted Screenplay
Wins at the Golden Globe, BAFTA and the USC Scripter Awards for Peter Straughan’s quite magnificent adaptation for Conclave logically points to another win at the Oscars as well. If only it was eligible for the WGA Awards (which was won by Nickel Boys), then we’d have a clearer picture of where things stand. But, I think Conclave has done more than enough to shade this one.
Should win: Conclave
Will win: Conclave
Best International Film
This has been one of the easiest categories to predict in the last few years, simply pick the film with a Best Picture nomination and you’ll have the winner here.
However, there are two films nominated for Best Picture in this category this year – Emilia Perez and I’m Still Here.
Without the controversy, and with its win at the BAFTA, Golden Globe and European Film Awards, I’d say this one is Emilia Perez’s to lose.
But, with the controversy, and the quiet momentum built up by I’m Still Here during the voting period, I think we’ll see a surprise winner with I’m Still Here.
Should win: Emilia Perez
Will win: I’m Still Here
