NOVEMBER 14 — Malaya’s two origin parties at their present trajectories head to oblivion.
Probably shortly after the 16th General Election, likely in 2027 — coincidentally the 70th anniversary of Malayan independence. Umno — despite its own mixed fortunes and uncertainties — will become the only remaining origin party when it outlives MCA and MIC.
Despite the countdown ticking away, its leaders remain clueless on how to avert a sad end.
Why so, and how did this schedule manifest itself?
Examining the political equations pre-2008 and after, and the current political balance assists.
In the old days
When Barisan Nasional (BN) — the successor of Umno, MCA and MIC’s Alliance — dominated until 2004, elections were about token resistance from Opposition parties.
BN wins without breaking stride in those glory years.
Therefore, the actual battle was pre-election, when the prime minister and Umno president decided how many seats his party and the three minority parties, MCA, MIC and Gerakan would contest.
How much Umno holds as a ratio to the various component parties in West Malaysia, organises the power dynamics between the two factions.
Until 2008, PAS — Semangat 46 for a spell — may rough up Umno in the east, and DAP grabs a similar number of west peninsula seats. However, the two parties totalled did not trouble BN’s majority.
But inside BN, MCA and MIC steadily shrink in power as respective Chinese and Indian population percentages shrank. They are as openly chauvinistic as Umno, and therefore by a shared logic among the three parties could not deny Umno a higher ratio as the Malay population increased substantially.
MCA were down to 40 (24 per cent) of 165 seats in 2004, when compared to 33 (31 per cent) of the 105 seats in 1964.
Reasonable to suggest even if there was no political tumult in the last 25 years, MCA likely would have far less than 24 per cent of the Semenanjung seats because the Chinese population slid.
Bersih and Hindraf aftermath and beyond
MCA and MIC had 40 parliamentary seats between them in 2004. On March 8, 2008, that was reduced to 18. This was fuelled by the popular protests of Bersih and Hindraf in late 2007.
Both parties from that point onwards never recovered and increasingly lost pace.
In the 2013 General Election, MCA was decimated to only seven parliamentary seats and MIC four. Which prompted state media to decry ethnic Chinese abandoning BN at the polls.
Currently, MCA holds only two parliamentary seats, Johor’s Ayer Hitam and Tanjung Piai, while MIC stands with only Perak’s Tapah.
There has been no upswing whatsoever for the two parties and they allegedly rely on Umno for political heartbeats.
Umno surely is getting tired of both parties without any measure of meaningful success for nearly 20 years.
Which might persuade Umno to turn its back on the two parties come 2027.
Umno’s Supreme Council is justified to assume any shortfall of ethnic votes, new friends in Pakatan offer cover. Then maybe it emboldens Umno to clarify relations and potentially formalise with Pakatan rather than do the heavy lifting without reward for MCA and MIC.
These days of unity
The Unity Government turns two in a fortnight.
Umno by large has come to terms with being inside the grand coalition of coalitions. While teetering and grappling with its own soul-searching as the spectre of ex-PM Najib Razak looms large over current president Zahid Hamidi, there has been no breakdown within the party.
Their wins in by-elections north and south of the peninsula calm nerves inside and smoothens relationships with Pakatan Harapan.
However, if the Unity Government adopts the same principles as it did during the six state elections in 2023 for seat allocations then there is much to fear for MCA and MIC.
One, to largely allow parties to continue contesting in where they’ve won, and second to do mild allowances in the spirit of co-operation. For example, in Selangor, DAP withdrew from Dusun Tua to enable Umno to contest — and its candidate won.
Will BN want to vouch for MCA and MIC to contest beyond their three now?
Will Pakatan pass a few seats to the two parties?
For instance, PKR hands Perak’s Tanjung Malim to MCA, and DAP meekly nudges Selangor’s Puchong to MCA. Or PKR couriers Selangor’s Subang to MIC.
Umno, when negotiating for more seats in Semenanjung, when it only has 20 presently, would focus on itself rather than care for MCA and MIC.
Because while wheeling and dealing seats, every other party inside the Unity Government probably points out that MCA and MIC candidates are weak and increase the chances of Perikatan Nasional (PN) winning in those races.
If MCA and MIC can only reduce the Unity Government’s chances at the 16th General Election, why bother to field their candidates?
Bringing a grin to the table
As 2024 concludes, talk about seat allocations should intensify.
In 2018 when BN fell from power, MCA and MIC were a spent force. They had no involvement in the 2020 Sheraton Move and the Pakatan government collapse.
Umno joined the Malay unity government with Bersatu, PAS and PKR deserters, and brought the two parties in out of habit and to embellish the administration’s multiculturalism.
Both MCA and MIC just sat in government and had no way to shine.
After the 2022 General Election, both parties are part of BN still but not in Cabinet.
They cannot in good faith either claim ethnic Chinese and Indians vote purely on race identity or that they identify with them.
They only possess memories of happier times which is to say politely, very little.
Act, react or play dead
MCA and MIC leaders stay still and hope for an uptick driven by others, like in 2020. There is absolutely nothing else they can think of.
DAP’s impressive 38 parliamentary seats and PKR’s mastery of mixed seats like Tebrau and Segamat demonstrate how ethnic minority votes are firmly with the two Pakatan parties.
Yet, playing dead is not a political stratagem. It’s not even useful in a kindergarten playground.
MCA and MIC have only two choices. One, to break away and redefine themselves or two, to accept their puny status in the new power equation — which only delays their demise but at least a chance to milk economic gains by being inside government rather than outside.
MCA and MIC are not built to have an imagination. They are conduits to maximise identity politics. When hit from both ends, their communities diminishing and also moved to traditional opponents, what do they have left?
And they also see how Gerakan, a like for like comparison, has failed to prosper as part of PN after switching from BN.
There are no upsides for MCA and MIC. This surprises no one.
What is not spoken about as much is that the countdown to zero is close. This is guaranteed to be ugly.
The leaderships are in limbo. The abyss is upon them. They are historically equipped to ignore their precarious situation.
They prefer to think if they do not stare at the abyss, it cannot possibly stare back at them. In their earnest wish not to see reality, they end up perfect to be blindsided.
* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.
