NEW YORK, Aug 20 — Global stocks pushed higher and the dollar tipped lower yesterday, after shares surged last week on expectations the US economy would dodge a recession and cooling inflation would spur interest rate cuts.
On Wall Street, stocks added to their recent gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.58 per cent, to 40,896, the S&P 500 gained 0.97 per cent, to 5,608 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.39 per cent, to 17,876. MSCI’s broadest index of world stocks jumped by around 1 per cent.
The prospect of lower borrowing costs could not sustain gold’s historic highs and the dollar dipped against the euro, while the yen lunged higher.
US Federal Reserve members Mary Daly and Austan Goolsbee over the weekend flagged the possibility of easing in September, while minutes of the last policy meeting due this week should underline the dovish outlook.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks in Jackson Hole on Friday and investors assume he will acknowledge the case for a cut.
“We expect the chairman to convey on Friday that the Fed is likely to begin easing monetary policy next month, without fully committing to the size of the rate cut,” TD Securities analysts wrote in a note yesterday.
Interest rate futures are fully priced for a quarter-point move, and imply a 25 per cent chance of 50 basis points with much depending on what the next payrolls report shows.
Yields on US government debt eased yesterday; the yield on benchmark 10-year notes fell 1.9 basis points to 3.873 per cent, from 3.892 per cent late on Friday.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs shifted down their US recession expectations to a 20 per cent chance and could push them lower if the August jobs report due in September “looks reasonably good,” analysts said in a note on Friday.
Broad European shares moved about 0.6 per cent higher, touching an over three-week high in broad-based market gains, while the blue-chip FTSE 100 index traded up 0.55 per cent.
Investors are anticipating flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for Britain, France, Germany and the Eurozone later this week.
Earlier, the Nikkei index closed 1.77 per cent lower at 37,388.62, snapping a five-day winning run that pushed it up 8.7 per cent last week. Chinese blue chips closed about 0.3 per cent higher.
Dollar dip
In currency markets, the dollar fell to a seven-month low and the Japanese yen hit a more than one-week high as traders awaited the Fed’s decision on interest rate cuts. The dollar lapsed 0.64 per cent to ¥146.64 while the euro firmed to US$1.108, up about 0.5 per cent and continuing its August climb.
Even as markets have calmed, it is worth remembering that the economic fundamentals behind the global markets sell-off two weeks ago have not completely vanished, said Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen.
“Economic data has been increasingly soft at a global level, falling inflation means that monetary policy is increasingly tight in real terms, geopolitical concerns are elevated, and we’re heading into a tough period on a seasonal basis,” said Allen in a note.
A softer dollar combined with lower bond yields could not hold gold at its zenith and it fell to around US$2,505 an ounce, just down from its all-time peak of US$2,509.
Oil prices dipped as concerns about Chinese demand continued to weigh on sentiment.
US crude lost 2.9 per cent to US$74.42 a barrel and Brent fell to US$77.79 per barrel, down 2.37 per cent on the day. — Reuters