KUALA LUMPUR, April 9 ― The performance of the Industrial Production Index (IPI), Distributive Trade Index (DTI) and crude palm oil (CPO) in February 2024 signals a firmer first quarter (1Q) gross domestic product (GDP) growth for Malaysia, said Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB).
Based on these indicators, it estimated that the economy grew 3.3 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in February 2024 (January 2023: up 4.0 per cent) and 3.7 per cent y-o-y in the first two months of 2024.
“(This is) supportive of our forecast of growth pickup in 2024 to 4.4 per cent from 3.7 per cent in 2023,” it said in a note today.
Yesterday, the Department of Statistics Malaysia announced that the IPI expanded by 3.1 per cent y-o-y in February 2024 compared with 4.3 per cent in January 2024.
Previously, the Malaysia Palm Oil Board announced that CPO output totalled 1.26 million tonnes in February 2024, which Maybank IB said was at a slower pace of y-o-y growth of 0.5 per cent versus January 2024’s 1.6 per cent growth.
In contrast, February 2024 witnessed a faster growth in DTI of 3.9 per cent y-o-y against 3.5 per cent in the preceding month as the volumes of retail trade and wholesale rose amid a softer growth in motor vehicles trade volume, it said.
Maybank IB said the IPI eased in February 2024 as slower growth in manufacturing countered the faster growth in mining and electricity.
In view of the shorter working month in February 2024 due to the Lunar New Year holiday, slower manufacturing growth reflected a decline in export-oriented industries, it said.
It noted that mining output growth picked up on higher natural gas production amid sustained crude oil and condensate output growth output. ― Bernama
