SINGAPORE, Nov 24 ― The dollar was restrained today by uncertainty over the path of US interest rates, while the yen strengthened after Japan's core consumer price growth picked up, reinforcing views that the Bank of Japan may soon roll back monetary stimulus.
With US markets closed yesterday for the Thanksgiving holiday and due for a shorter trading session today, currencies are likely to trade narrowly but possibly with some volatility as liquidity is expected to remain thin.
The dollar index, which measures the US currency with six peers, eased 0.058 per cent to 103.71, staying close to the two-and-a-half month low of 103.17 it touched earlier this week.
The index is down 2.8 per cent for the month, on course for its weakest monthly performance in a year on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and could start cutting rates next year.
Markets have dialled back expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024, with futures now showing a 26 per cent chance that the Fed cuts its target rate at the March 2024 policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. That compares with a 33 per cent chance last week.
Meanwhile, Japan's core consumer price growth picked up slightly in October, after easing the previous month, reinforcing investors' views that stubborn inflation may push the BoJ to roll back monetary stimulus before long.
ING economists said they expect the BoJ to move away from its super-accommodative stance next year.
"We believe that the BoJ may scrap the yield curve programme as early as the first quarter of next, as Japanese government bonds appear to have stabilised ... then begin its first rate hike in Q2 2024 if wage growth continues to accelerate next year."
The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.9 per cent year-on-year in October, government data showed today, against 3.0 per cent expected by economists in a Reuters poll.
The Japanese yen strengthened 0.21 per cent to 149.23 per dollar. The Asian currency has slowly crawled away from the near 33-year low of 151.92 it touched at the start of last week and is up 1.5 per cent for the month.
Japan's factory activity shrank for a sixth straight month in November, while modest growth in the service sector was little changed, a business survey showed today, highlighting the fragility of the economy amid soft demand and inflation.
The euro stood at US$1.09065, having risen 0.16 per cent overnight after a series of preliminary surveys showed recession in Germany may be shallower than expected, which offset a downbeat reading on French business activity.
Sterling was last at US$1.254, up 0.06 per cent on the day.
The Australian dollar rose 0.11 per cent to US$0.656, while the kiwi rose 0.15 per cent to US$0.606.
Cash Treasuries resumed trading in Asia after Japan's holiday yesterday, with the yield on 10-year Treasury notes up 4.3 basis points (bps) to 4.459 per cent.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 3.6 bps to 4.584 per cent. ― Reuters
