KUALA LUMPUR, March 29 — United Overseas Bank (Malaysia) Bhd (UOB Malaysia) has revised upwards Malaysia’s export growth forecast for 2021 to 15 per cent from 4 per cent previously.
Senior economist Julia Goh said this is following the surprise upside in February exports, signs of firmer global economic recovery and potential gains from trade diversion and diversification.
“Despite the movement control order (MCO) and a shorter working month, Malaysia’s exports extended its expansion substantially to 17.6 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in February 2021 from 6.6 per cent in January 2021.
“This marked the biggest gain since October 2018,” she said in a research note today.
Goh said February 2021 export growth was propelled by robust shipments of manufactured goods such as rubber products, chemicals and agriculture goods.
She said the contraction in mining exports tapered to a single-digit decline for the first time in 11 months while year-ago low base effects also lent some support.
On a month-on-month basis, she said exports contracted at a more moderate pace by 2.3 per cent in February 2021 from 6.4 per cent in January 2021.
“This brought year-to-date (YTD) increase in exports to 11.7 per cent y-o-y in the first two months of 2021 compared to 2.9 per cent in the same period last year,” she said.
Furthermore, she said almost all export markets posted positive expansions led by China, the United States, European Union, Singapore and Hong Kong.
Besides that, Julia said the giant tanker Ever Given, stuck for almost a week at the Suez Canal, has reportedly been refloated today.
“A sharp cyclical rebound in China’s economic growth and growing optimism surrounding the US economic outlook, alongside moderate recoveries across Asia will help drive the recovery in global demand this year.
“An acceleration in global inoculation programme and reopening of international borders are potential catalysts for the rosier export outlook,” she added. — Bernama
