KUALA LUMPUR, May 11 — Political analysts have predicted that the Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidate, Pang Sock Tao, will win the Kuala Kubu Baru by-election today.
However, several told Malay Mail that the victory is expected to have a lower margin than what the late Lee Kee Hiong amassed during last year’s state election due to a lower voter turnout in the constituency.
Syaza Shukri, assistant professor of political science at International Islamic University Malaysia, said he anticipates that the voter turnout will be so-so as the sense of excitement is simply not there.
“Perhaps 50 to 60 per cent just because I don’t get a sense of excitement that usually brings people out to vote.
“My suspicion is that PH will win, even with an average turnout, because I think PH supporters may have more to lose so they will likely be more motivated to go out and vote.
“Perikatan Nasional (PN) voters are split between PAS and Bersatu voters and my suspicion is that PAS supporters may not be too eager to vote, but I’m not sure given that Takiyuddin said not voting is ‘haram’,” she told Malay Mail when contacted, while referring to PAS secretary-general Datuk Seri Takiyuddin Hassan’s recent comments.
Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun echoed Syaza’s sentiments that the status quo will prevail despite a lower voter turnout.
“Perhaps the voter turnout will be no higher than other recent by-elections, ranging from 50 per cent to 60 per cent or so.
“I think DAP will still squeeze by with a lower margin. Inevitably by-elections are usually used as referendums on the performance of the government of the day,” he said.
Similarly, Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research (NASR) senior fellow Azmi Hassan said voters were showing signs of election fatigue.
“Looking at the campaigns and sentiments played, I think voters are quite tired.
“Not only that, but they don’t see the urgency of going out to vote because nothing will change. It’s the politicians who have a point to prove,” he said.
The electoral roll for the Kuala Kubu Baru by-election has 40,226 people consisting of 39,362 ordinary voters, 625 policemen, 238 military personnel and spouses and one overseas absentee voter.
The Kuala Kubu Baru seat fell vacant following the death of its three-term assemblyman, Lee, on March 21 from cancer.
In the state election in August last year, Lee beat candidates from PN, Parti Rakyat Malaysia and the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) by a majority of 4,119 votes.
In a four-cornered fight, Pang will take on PN’s Khairul Azhari Saut, Hafizah Zainuddin from Parti Rakyat Malaysia and Independent candidate Nyau Ke Xin.
Pang’s victory could put an end to the suggestion from the Opposition that fielding a Malay candidate would have given them a better chance of securing a win.
Currently, the Malay community in Kuala Kubu Baru makes up 46 per cent of voters, compared to Chinese voters at 30.6 per cent.
This represents a significant shift from 2018 when Malays made up 44 per cent of voters and Chinese 35 per cent.
