KUALA LUMPUR, May 10 — Think tank Ilham Centre has today predicted that Pakatan Harapan (PH) will likely retain the Kuala Kubu Baru seat in the by-election tomorrow, saying voters' sentiments are largely still unswayed from the last state election.
Citing its most recent survey, it also downplayed the effectiveness of Perikatan Nasional's (PN) campaign which focused on identity politics, saying it has reached saturation point and was never effective in a mixed ethnic seat in Selangor.
“Generally, with the trend of support not too far off from the state election, added to the gloomy atmosphere of the voters' reaction to the campaigns, the result would likely be status quo,” the pollster said in a report released today.
The report said that a hardline campaign that focuses on race and religion is ineffective and unsuitable in Kuala Kubu Baru, since Selangor voters respond differently compared to Malay-majority voters in Kedah, Terengganu or Kelantan.
“An unscrupulous assault of ethnic and religious narrative may aim for the Malay votes to remain, but at the same time it pushes away non-Malay votes further,” it said.
It also suggested that while some Malay voters may have shown support for PN, 74 per cent of voters are still satisfied with the Selangor government's performance in addition to 70.8 per cent for Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Amirudin Shaari and 63 per cent for the late Kuala Kubu Baru assemblyman Lee Kee Hiong.
“Only a handful of Malay voters showed support for PH. They have a different view from the majority group, pointing out that the political reality of the country requires inter-ethnic power sharing according to the demographics of a plural society in Malaysia," it said.
It added that ethnic Chinese voters would also likely vote for PH, despite their dissatisfaction on issues such as taxes, subsidy rationalisation and rising costs of living.
"They claimed that PN's approach was too hardline and not conducive towards the Chinese community. Many issues have widened the rift between them and PN, such as PAS' offensive remarks on vernacular schools," it said.
The think tank also highlighted how Umno's grassroots campaigners have been working harder than their PAS counterparts, with those who grumbled over the alliance with PH have now mostly accepted the fact.
“The biggest factor was that they did not get any advantage when they were the opposition in Selangor, but the PN also did not treat them well after the election,” it said.
The survey said Interestingly for the by-election this time, issues related to the interests and welfare of the Indian voting community became the focal point and focus of the campaign.
“This is because even with only 18 per cent, in a situation where the Malay ethnic majority is cornered by the PN, the Chinese ethnic majority is on the PH side, then the voting pattern of this race can be the deciding factor or 'kingmaker' of victory between the competing parties,” it said.
According to Ilham Centre, its report is the result of a field survey involving 404 respondents, with a margin of error of 4.85 per cent and a 95 per cent confidence level.
Voters will go to the ballot boxes tomorrow to choose between four candidates: Pang Sock Tao (PH), Khairul Azhari Saut (PN), Hafizah Zainuddin (Parti Rakyat Malaysia) and Nyau Ke Xin (Independent).
