KOTA KINABALU, Jan 21 — Speculation that Sabah will have a state election this year instead of in 2025 has been making the rounds even though the five-year mandate will end only in December 2025.
Talk has been increasing even though the ruling Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition only celebrated its one-year anniversary.
The state government’s full term lasts till September 2025, but some political analysts think that GRS will take its chances now with its new alliances to make the most out of its strong position and before the Opposition can get its ducks in a row.
“In elections, the most important decision is who to work with. For now, the strongest and most organised political alliance in Sabah is GRS. It seems very likely they’re going to collaborate with Pakatan Harapan,” University Malaysia Sabah senior lecturer Lee Kuok Tiung told Malay Mail when contacted recently.
He observed that GRS and its seven component parties have had time to settle in while the Opposition parties like Sabah Umno and Parti Warisan were still on their own, despite the coy show of support made within the last one month.
Lee said also it’s not the assemblymen within the government who want an election soon, but those on the fringes who wish to contest that are pushing for it, and playing it up on social media.
“Within Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (PGRS), you can see a few of them keen to become candidates. Sabah Progressive Party, whose president Datuk Yong Teck Lee is a nominated assemblyman, is keen on getting an elected assemblyman and PAS, who is officially a part of GRS still, may also want a piece,” he said.
Lee said that whether voters are happy with GRS or not is less of a factor as long as the parties can present a united front.
The alliances that went into the 2020 state elections have changed drastically and many were keen on solidifying their new partnerships.
“There are those in GRS who think their side is strong now, while Warisan and Umno are much decimated, so there is this urge to finish them off once and for all,” said Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun.
He said that Warisan was likely at its weakest point, and GRS could capitalise on it by now and have Sabah Umno as the main rival in Muslim Bumiputera seats.
A tie-up between Sabah Umno and Warisan could potentially throw a wrench in those plans but analysts also say that a tie-up is hard to pull off given the different stances held by the Malay nationalist party’s leaders.
Both Lee and Universiti Teknologi Mara’s political lecturer Tony Paridi Bagang said that the various factions in Umno made it hard to go all in.
“Although they are denying factions, there is evidence of splits in Umno. Some are loyal to Bung, while some are quietly supporting Hajiji,” said Bagang, referring to Sabah Umno chairman Datuk Bung Moktar Radin and the state Chief Minister and GRS chairman Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor.
Sabah Umno deputy chairman Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan had quickly quashed rumours of a tie-up after Bung showed up at Warisan’s annual convention last month, saying that the party has made no official decision.
Lee said that there is likely going to be chaos within Umno if the tie-up was pushed through.
“It’s not easy to convince your supporters to join forces with your rivals,” Lee said.
“This is why who you form a political alliance with is key to winning an election,” said Bagang.
However, he also said that an early election put GRS in a risky position if seat distribution could not be done to everyone’s satisfaction.
“Sabotages of each other’s candidate due to dissatisfaction within GRS could be a real concern for them, leading to significant losses,” he said.
Hajiji is known generally as “Mr Nice Guy”.
He had openly said that he had a hard time negotiating seats between Umno and other political parties during the 2020 state election.
He is expected to undergo a similar experience this year with the seven parties in his coalition, which no longer includes Umno.
“But generally in the current political atmosphere, GRS could still do well provided their rivals have trouble getting their pacts off the ground, and there is no last-minute political realignment from any GRS component,” said Bagang.
The seven components in GRS comprises Hajiji’s PGRS, Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR), SAPP, United Sabah National Organisation (Usno) and the newest additions, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Parti Harapan Rakyat Sabah (PHRS).
Within that, a collaboration between PBS and STAR is on the cards, although past experiences have shown deep-seated emotions could linger and sabotages crop up again if the two local parties cannot come to a happy conclusion on seat negotiations.
“Overall, I still believe Hajiji will opt to maximise his term. There are still issues to be addressed and people have higher expectations from GRS that are seemingly not satisfied yet,” said Bagang.
In the last 2020 state polls, Warisan and Sabah PH could not hold on to power and lost to the newly formed GRS, a partnership between Sabah’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, Umno and other independents.
Having won 41 out of the 73 seats in the State Assembly, Hajiji led the formation of the new government with Bung as a deputy chief minister.
However since then much has changed including several crossovers from Warisan, an en masse resignation from Sabah Bersatu, an attempted coup from Sabah Umno and Warisan and yet more crossovers have blurred political lines and alignments to new levels.
GRS and Hajiji have scrapped through the turmoil and now sit with at least a 49-seat majority support in the 79-seat state assembly which includes five nominated assemblymen. This does not include 13 Umno assemblymen whose political alliances remain unclear.
