Ilham Centre predicts six state elections' results to remain status quo

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 11 — A survey by independent pollster Ilham Centre predicted that the results of the six state elections on August 12 will remain status quo.

The think tank predicted that the Pakatan Harapan (PH)-Barisan Nasional (BN) pact will continue to helm Selangor, Penang Negeri Sembilan, while Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu will remain under Perikatan Nasional (PN).

In Selangor, the survey revealed that PH has non-Malay voters as their permanent deposit as it said that PN's aggressive campaign scares this segment.

“Our data shows that non-Malay voters will come out high in Selangor,” said Ilham Centre.

The survey also said that PN needs the support of more than 70 per cent of the Malay voters in Selangor to turn the table as they struggle to attract non-Malay votes.

“PN has the opportunity to increase seats in the Malay-majority seats in Selangor, but it will not be sufficient to form the state government," it said.

Ilham Centre also predicted that it will be difficult for PN to challenge PH-BN in Negeri Sembilan.

“BN’s Malay base is huge in this state, while PH dominates the mixed and Chinese-majority areas.

“Meanwhile, PAS and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) are not strong and organised in this state as compared to the other five states.

“Additionally, PN also had trouble displaying a poster boy for the menteri besar post and this has effect on pulling the on-the-fence voters to their side,” said Ilham Centre.

Ilham Centre predicted that there will be only three seats — Ampangan, Bagan Pinang, and Gemas — where there could be fierce battles, which might allow PN to deny PH-BN from sweeping the state.

In Penang, Ilham Centre said that PH-BN is in full control, with PN’s potential for victory concentrated in the Malay majority constituencies of Penaga, Pinang Tunggal, Permatang Berangan and Sungai Dua, with close fights seen in Telok Ayer Tawar, Permatang Pasir and Penanti.

In Kelantan and Terengganu, Ilham Centre said the failure of PH-BN to present strong candidates and running serious campaigns meant PN would have an easy path to victory despite data initially showing declining levels of support.

“In Kelantan, only the Kota Lama and Galas seats were potential for PH-BN and considered to be 50-50 situation, that too with the help of Chinese votes.

“In Terengganu, only Telemung seats shows potential to contribute while others seats such as Kijal, Seberang Takir and Permaisuri requires Umno’s white votes to compete with PAS. Bandar expected a fierce battle due to the factor of non-Malay voters,” the centre said.

As for Kedah, it saw caretaker menteri besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Noor’s popularity being enough to keep the state green.

“PN might get a clean sweep if the Chinese voter turnout is low on polling day. However, PH still has potential for Derga, Darul Aman, Sidam, Bakar Arang, Pedu and Sungai Tiang seats if Umno could get maximum votes,” said Ilham Centre.

The survey, which was conducted between July 28 until Aug 8, involved a total of 2,304 respondents, including 48 who participated in in-depth interviews.

Ilham Centre said the data from face-to-face were collected by enumerators using surveys and semi-structured interview protocols.