Analysis: Status quo in at least five states if voter turnout over two-thirds

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 9 — Both Pakatan Harapan (PH)-Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) are expected to retain their state administrations after the elections on August 12, a survey has predicted.

In the report released today, Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research (NASR) said its prediction which did not include Terengganu was predicated on at least two-thirds of all registered voters going to the ballots — similar to previous state elections in Johor and Melaka.

“The dominance of PH-BN in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan is strong. In both scenarios, this coalition can still win the state elections and form state governments. The dominance of PN (read: PAS) in Kelantan also is still strong, and the alliance of two major coalitions PH and BN in 100 per cent of seats is seen as not yet able to challenge them.

“Overall, from these six states, PH-BN will dominate three states which are Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan. Meanwhile, PN will dominate three which are Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu,” it said.

However, NASR noted that it did not include Terengganu in its analysis due to several disputed results in the 15th general election.

The academy said its prediction was based on the assumption that PH and PN voters would not change their votes while BN supporters will split into three groups – one will vote for the PH-BN coalition, the second will vote for PN, and the third will abstain from voting.

“Among the factors that caused the disintegration of BN voters may be due to the loss of trust in the Umno President, the protest vote, and possibly even being confused or tired of the current political turmoil of the Umno party,” it said.

In Negeri Sembilan, NASR predicted that the PH-BN coalition will win in 28 seats and the remaining eight will be PN’s.

In Selangor, it predicted that 23 seats in the rural areas are expected to have a tough battle where the winners will have less than 2,000-vote majority; but it also predicted PH-BN will win 41 seats to claim two-third majority.

In Penang, it predicted that PH-BN will claim 29 out of 40 seats, and PN will win in the remaining 11.

As for the other two states, NASR predicted a landslide win for PN with the coalition sweeping 33 out of 35 seats in Kedah and all seats in Kelantan.

Selangor, Penang, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu will be headed to the polls this Saturday.

The six states decided against holding the state elections at the same time as the 15th general election, citing concerns related to the annual flood season.