KUALA LUMPUR, July 27 — Perikatan Nasional could feasibly win the Selangor state election with a modest swing in Malay votes if this were coupled with a drop in non-Malay turnout, sacked Umno leader Khairy Jamaluddin said in an analysis of the poll.
In a piece written for Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS), the former Umno presidential contender said it was not impossible for the Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) alliance to lose the Selangor state election to PN.
Khairy cautioned against assuming perfect transferability of votes that PH and BN won during the 15th general election simply because they have allied, arguing that voters might behave differently in the election next month due to significant changes in Malaysian politics over the past eight months.
In one of three proposed scenarios, Khairy said a 5 per cent swing in Malay support to PN, coupled with a 81 per cent turnout in the group’s voters and a 55 per cent turnout for non-Malays could give the coalition 29 seats from the 56 in the state.
“This is PN’s path to capturing Selangor. Non-Malay turnout and vote share will be the same as in the second scenario above, as will the Malay voter turnout. But in this scenario, the PH-BN vote share among the Malays further drops only slightly to 32 per cent,” he said.
Khairy said one significant factor that could determine the election’s outcome is the influence of Umno under president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
“Yet, Umno continues to be seen as a shadow of the grand old party that dominated the Malay political ground for decades. Umno is likely to get far fewer seats to contest compared to PKR and DAP in Selangor and presently suffers from weak leadership at the state level.
“Should there be significant frustration among Malay voters at Umno’s lack of reform, and should this result in vote transfers, PH-BN’s margin of victory could be affected,” he said.
He also said that Selangor voters will not only consider the state government’s track record but also express their views on national issues and the federal government.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s national unity government has undertaken various measures to address cost-of-living challenges, but criticisms regarding economic management and unfulfilled pre-election promises from former opposition leaders turned ministers may sway some voters’ decisions, he said.
“Third, coming into government after many years in opposition (apart from 22 months during the first PH government), some ministers have had difficulties managing expectations. This is the case, especially regarding positions they took when in opposition and where they now have trouble performing due to their populist or political compromises,” he said.
He added that the fourth factor involves identity politics and the culture war, with the recent arrest of PN election director and Kedah caretaker menteri besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor making him popular with certain segments.
To counter the challenges brought forth by PN, Anwar’s government has been taking steps to demonstrate its commitment to defending Malay interests and identity.
“Anwar has also tried to stave off the challenge PN brings to identity politics by allowing authorities to move quickly against Sanusi, therefore demonstrating his commitment to defend the Malay Rulers. He has also recently declared that Malaysia is not a secular state — at least in the laïcité sense — to dismiss attacks that he is too liberal on religion.
“While these moves help in correcting the perception that Anwar is weak on 3R issues, the question is whether it is enough for him to win Malay support and whether that will be at the expense of his natural support base, which tends to be more liberal on social issues,” he said.
However, he also said that there are conflicting views and surveys on voter sentiment in Selangor. While one survey suggests PH-BN holds a commanding lead with 46.7 per cent support, another indicates that there is “no significant vote transferability” between PH and BN, paving the way for a potential PN victory.
In his other scenarios, Khairy said the best-case for PH-BN would be a high turnout of both Malay and non-Malay voters, which would give the two 55 out of Selangor’s 56 seats.
An average outcome for PH-BN could see them prevailing in just 34 seats, which Khairy also said was likely to be the result of the election.
