KUALA LUMPUR, June 27 — The Anwar administration’s performance in the eight months since it took power would likely be the single biggest issue to dominate the campaign trail in Selangor, analysts predict, even as local politics could still influence the outcome of contests in several constituencies.
One of the major points of debate will likely be the economic policies Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has rolled out so far, or those the prime minister had openly said he plans on implementing like subsidy rollbacks for top-income earners, which on social media at least appears to resonate with the poor and middle class.
Ibrahim Suffian, who directs pollster Merdeka Center, noted voter reception, especially among youths and first-time voters, towards these policies has been positive so far and that Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) are set to leverage on them.
“I think the economy, cost of living and inflation will still remain as the most pressing issues,” he said.
“People will focus on their assessment or perception of how the Anwar government has handled prices and living costs (pressure). There will also be discussions around his plan to remove subsidies, something the public knows and it’s still up in the air.”
There is a widely held view that state elections are usually won on very local issues. Analysts disagree, arguing that it’s always a combination of national and state politics.
Ibrahim said at least “65 per cent” of the issues to dominate the state election campaign trail will be affairs that happen at the federal level, and often involve issues like wages and jobs.
But this isn’t to say local issues would have no bearing on how the race for Selangor pans out.
The contests for seats outside the urban areas, for example, had been decided on issues like personality, ethnicity, or even tribal loyalty.
James Chin, University of Tasmania political science professor, said Perikatan Nasional will likely continue to use race rhetoric as its primary campaign tactic and harp on the PH-Umno alliance, messaging that is driving the coalition’s attacks against the federal government ever since it took power.
The coalition, whose most influential component member is the Islamist party PAS, believes it could grab up to 33 of the 56 state legislative seats where Malays form over 65 per cent of voters there.
PN leaders have hinted that they could tap into the community’s disillusionment with corruption-tainted Umno to woo support, including from neutral voters that would have likely or had voted for PH in past elections. Any coalition must win at least 29 seats to form a simple majority.
“In every election in Malaysia, it’s always a mix of federal and state issues but the overriding (theme) is always race and religion and they play on it in different forms.
“I think this will be an indirect referendum on the performance of Anwar Ibrahim for the last six months and this will also be a second-round contest to see who has the (most) Malay votes,” Chin said.
The Selangor polls could also see controversies that are unique to the different constituencies play up, like those that affect local communities such as development allocations or unpopular projects.
“I think the issues would depend on the state seats being contested, as well as the candidates that are contesting them,” said Shazwan Mustafa Kamal, associate director at Vriens & Partners, a risk consultancy.
“For state assemblymen that have consistently spoken on local issues like Rajiv Rishyakaran, the PJD Link might resonate with him just like how Kidex did for the state assembly persons in the past,” he added, referring to the two unpopular tolled highways that local residents have fiercely opposed yet been ignored by the PH state government.
“Leaders like Datuk Seri Azmin Ali, should he campaign for Bukit Antarabangsa, would likely lean on PN’s achievements and his performance as state menteri besar and Miti minister to drive home the narrative of experience and stability under his stewardship,” he added.
But analysts believe these issues tend to be isolated and rarely travel beyond districts that are affected, even as they may seem amplified by media coverage.
“We think in Selangor it’s likely to be status quo... even with a reduced majority. These issues rarely go state-wide,” Ibrahim said.
