Analysts: Constant criticism of Umno will not help Pakatan’s cause when state elections roll around

KUALA LUMPUR, April 18 — If DAP or PKR leaders carry on making negative remarks about Umno, it will affect their chances in elections that are due to take place in six states soon, political analysts have said.

They also said such behaviour would be detrimental to the relationship between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) in the unity government in the long run.

University of Malaya Centre for Democracy and Election Studies (Umcedel) socio-political analyst Associate Professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi said DAP and PKR leaders should respect Umno’s decisions, and not air their grievances publicly.

“If a statement by DAP or PKR like what Hassan Karim said continues, it will end up with Umno blaming DAP if it fails in the coming state elections.

“DAP and PKR leaders should respect Umno’s decisions and not criticise them. Moreover, the (royal pardon) lies with the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, and not Umno or Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim,” Awang Azman said when contacted by Malay Mail.

Awang Azman was referring to Perak DAP vice-chairman Abdul Aziz Bari who on Friday said that Umno’s position with the Malays was now uncertain, as Perikatan Nasional (PN) had amassed more support and assumed the role that Umno had previously played.

Abdul Aziz had made his observations based on the results of the last general election where many expected PN to put up a poor show, but saw Umno losing the Malay vote instead.

Awang Azman was also referring to Johor PKR federal lawmaker Hassan Abdul Karim’s statement on April 10 that Umno’s push to get former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak a royal pardon and drop Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s corruption charges would tarnish the image of the unity government led by Anwar and influence negatively PKR’s chances in the upcoming state elections.

“When the criticisms continue, it will affect Umno’s current status, and that is to improve the party.

“I think it is only after the internal cleansing of Umno by sacking or suspending traitorous leaders and those who lost the party election can Umno start to recover, meaning that Umno will be able to attract greater support from the Malays than before,” Awang Azman said.

Weighing in, Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun agreed that the barrage of negative remarks will not weaken PN’s strength.

“In the last general election, Umno had a field day demonising DAP, but suffered its worst defeat in history, which it logically could not blame on DAP, so it is curious that it now tries to pin another impending electoral defeat on DAP.

“In any case, even if it were true that DAP is dragging Umno down, Umno only has itself to blame for having relentlessly demonised DAP in the past.

“Conversely, DAP also has to worry about alienating its traditional support base by associating itself with Umno,” Oh said when contacted.

He added that it is open knowledge that Umno has yet to make any significant inroads in regaining Malay support.

“And this sort of chicanery between Umno and DAP will not help them in halting the onslaught of the green wave,” Oh said.

On Saturday, Umno senior leader Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed had reportedly called DAP a liability that is adversely affecting Umno’s efforts in winning back Malay support.

The Umno supreme council member told Utusan Malaysia that as it stands, the Malay nationalist party faces an uphill struggle to win back the confidence of the majority community in time for the state elections, and DAP is not helping its cause.

He said Umno is sincere about making the unity government a success, and that is why the party has refrained from reacting, yet it finds itself having to deal with such statements as the one made by Abdul Aziz.

Nur Jazlan said that DAP should instead appreciate Umno’s role in the formation of the federal coalition government.

He added that DAP’s strategy of putting Malays in positions of power in the party no longer worked, so they should value what Umno brings to the table.

Offering a slightly different view, Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research (NASR) senior fellow Azmi Hassan said it isn’t only Umno that is fighting to attract Malay votes, but also PH.

That was clear in the results of the 15th general election, he said when contacted.

“But it is good that Abdul Aziz put up this kind of statement and Nur Jazlan’s remarks in reply to him — basically, blaming or using DAP as the scapegoat or bogeyman to attract Malay votes for Umno.

“Because comparing Umno to PKR and also Amanah, Umno has the best chance at attracting Malay votes because PKR and Amanah are tied too closely to DAP, and so it is quite impossible for them to do that,” Azmi said.

“I think Abdul Aziz started the ball rolling and Nur Jazlan accepted it, so I guess it is a strategy right now, in order to attract Malay votes — use DAP as the scapegoat, because DAP in this sense can attract non-Malay votes whatever it may come to,” Azmi said.

He added that if this strategy is carried out correctly, it will send the signal that Umno, even though it is part of the unity government, can go head on with DAP.

“So I think maybe this is part of the strategy, because during the state elections, Malay votes will be crucial, and Umno has the responsibility to attract Malay votes in this case,” he said.

Azmi also said that if this allows PH via Umno to attack the Malay support base, DAP likely would not mind being the “bad boy”, and at the same time, their relationship will not be affected by this episode.

“(However) if PH loses in Negeri Sembilan and Selangor, then the bad blood will continue as this means they lost due to Umno failing to secure Malay votes,” he said.