KOTA KINABALU, Nov 7 — The two recent breaches to the Sabah ruling alliance’s carefully constructed general election candidate list could, at best, be a case of disgruntled old warlords; and at worst, unhinge the precarious power balance between Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Barisan Nasional (BN).

The collaboration between the parties in the PN-BN coalitions that call themselves Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) founded in 2020 to topple the Warisan government seemed like a good idea at the time. When the fallout occurred at the national level, the leaders of both GRS and BN decided to forge through and stick it out for the sake of the state.

The two leaders — GRS chairman Datuk Hajiji Noor and Sabah BN chief Datuk Bung Moktar Radin — made a good combination. Hajiji was amiable and composed, Bung was fiery and passionate.

So when it came down to GE15 seat negotiations for the 25 parliamentary seats in Sabah, Hajiji gamely took its share of 13 seats, and Umno got 12.

But Sabah Bersatu, which Hajiji leads, shared the spoils among four out of five of its component members, taking only six for itself while Umno took 11, leaving PBRS with one seat and two parties with zero.

Among the 11 seats given to Umno was the highly coveted Beluran seat and the Tenom interior seat.

“What was he thinking?” asked one Bersatu insider.

“He should’ve fought harder for Beluran,” he said, pointing out that the incumbent MP Datuk Ronald Kiandee is a Bersatu vice-president, and had been a federal minister.

Bersatu’s national leaders obviously agreed and gave the green light to Kiandee to contest on a PN logo, despite earlier giving Hajiji full rein to negotiate the formula “as long as Bersatu is priority.”

It was also speculated that a national Bersatu leader was involved in the talks with several other local warlords who were not fielded, to contest with PN. Those warlords eventually backed out, leaving Kiandee as the only “justifiable” PN candidate.

“It can be seen as threatening and undermining Hajiji’s position. As Sabah Bersatu chairman, he can rightfully be angry and initiate disciplinary action,” political analyst Tony Paridi Bagang who is familiar with Sabah politics told Malay Mail.

“On the other hand, Kiandee still commands a lot of grassroot support, so he is also understandably peeved that the seat was given to Umno and moved to take matters into his own hands, but still within the party,” he said.

On nomination day last Saturday, another “incursion” occurred. This time from BN’s PBRS into Bersatu’s Ranau seat. The casualty is Datuk Jonathan Yasin, a defector from PKR, and the perpetrator, former Ranau MP Datuk Ewon Ebin.

Sabah BN issued a statement the same night — it did not authorise the clash and it would stay true to the GRS-BN electoral pact. However, it did not mention any repercussions for PBRS.

PN, or GRS (Bersatu is a component in both coalitions) has yet to make a statement, but it is believed that Bung does not blame Hajiji in the incident.

However, GRS insiders are still fuming at the interference from “Malaya” — it’s how Sabahans refer to peninsular Malaysia. They see it as a typical display of federal might, overruling the decisions made by the state.

The move puts Hajiji in a tight spot, unable to chastise a national vice-president.

“If he’s really angry, he should make a point. Pull out of Bersatu, PN. They need Sabah,” said one party insider who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“GRS can stand on its own. Maybe it is time,” he said, referring to local sentiments preferring local-based parties over national parties.

A move out of Bersatu into a fully-local alliance was also talked about some time ago and may still be on the cards if the party leadership does not put out the sparks soon.

On the other hand, it may just be the beginning of a bigger play as political observers claim that the two coalitions actually coincide in not two, but 11 seats.

Political theories allege that fledgling Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat — a GRS-friendly party that is speculated to be more than “just friends”, and pro-BN independent candidates are in the mix to split votes or hedge bets.

PKDM is standing in six seats against BN, and one seat against GRS. Bersatu’s Kemabong assemblyman Datuk Rubin Balang has placed his son Riduan in the Tenom seat as an independent also against BN’s Datuk Jamawi Jaafar.

Two pro-BN independents are also speculated to have been placed in the Tuaran and Kudat seats.

“The clashing could be seen as part of a larger plan to hedge bets or at least split votes for their ‘frenemies’,” said Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow with Singapore's Institute of International Affairs.

“If true, this battle of PN vs BN Sabah is far more serious than 2020, when it openly clashed in a few seats. But remains to be seen if this would affect the winning chances of the ‘official’ candidates,” he told Malay Mail.

“Otherwise, parties will have to eventually start damage control and try to negotiate some more over next few days so that some of the offending candidates withdraw and allow GRS and BN to concentrate on a sole candidate,” he said.