KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 14 — Malaysia’s political disarray appears set to continue despite Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob calling for the 15th general election (GE15), as circumstances and gamesmanship meant as few as just two states could hold polls simultaneously.

On Monday, the caretaker prime minister announced the dissolution of Parliament just three days after his government tabled Budget 2023, but well before the crucial federal spending plan could be approved.

In the sudden announcement, he acknowledged that Sabah, Sarawak, Melaka, and Johor would not have to dissolve their respective assemblies, having already held their state elections no more than two years ago.

Sabah’s was the earliest of the four, when an attempted government takeover triggered a snap poll in September 2020, which also started a massive wave of Covid-19 infections across the country.

Melaka was the next, when several defections forced a premature state poll there in November 2021, which Barisan Nasional won handily. A month later, Sarawak was finally able to hold its overdue state election, which the ruling Gabungan Parti Sarawak dominated.

In March this year, the death of former mentri besar Datuk Osman Sapian left Johor with a minority government, leading to the decision for an early state election that allowed BN to secure two-thirds control of the legislature.

With these four states already excluded from GE15, Pakatan Harapan also took Selangor, Penang, and Negri Sembilan out of the running, after deciding not to dissolve their assemblies to object against Ismail Sabri calling a general election that could coincide with the severe floods from the annual year-end monsoon.

PH may end up reviewing the decision for Penang at its presidential council meeting today, but Selangor Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari has confirmed he will not seek a state election this year while his Negri Sembilan counterpart, Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun, was also against holding one now.

Yesterday, Islamist party PAS confirmed that it also would not dissolve the legislative assemblies of the states under its control, effectively removing another three states from the equation.

Aside from Kelantan that the party has governed since 1990, PAS also heads the state administrations in Terengganu and Kedah.

After dithering in the hopes of mediating between Umno and Bersatu, PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang finally committed his party to Perikatan Nasional yesterday and confirmed that the three states will not join GE15 this year.

Consequently, of three major coalitions considered to be contenders in the general election, only BN has committed to dissolve the state assemblies under its control.

But excluding Melaka, Johor, Sabah, and Sarawak that the coalition either controlled directly or via partnerships, the only states that would still need to join the general election were Pahang, Perlis, and Perak.

Yet even these were not certain to have their state elections in GE15.

On Wednesday, MB Datuk Seri Saarani Mohammad sought an audience with Sultan Nazrin Muizzuddin Shah to dissolve the assembly, but left the state palace without royal assent to do so as the Malay Ruler wanted time to consider.

While it would be unusual, the Sultan could exercise his discretion and deny royal assent to the MB’s request for dissolution. Were he to do so, then only Pahang and Perlis would have their state elections along with GE15.

Yesterday, Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Azlan Man said he applied for an audience with the Raja of Perlis, Tuanku Syed Sirajuddin Putra Jamalullail, while Pahang MB Datuk Seri Wan Rosdy Wan Ismail said he will decide on the dissolution once the state Budget was passed.

Still, even if all three BN states proceed with dissolving their state assemblies, Malaysia could be left with an unprecedented situation where it might only have three state polls concurrently with the general election, and need as many as six more next year.

The Election Commission will meet on October 20 to decide the key dates of GE15.