Analysts: Better chances of winning for city-centric Muda in Johor polls if it works with Pakatan

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 14 — The Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) will have a better fighting chance if Pakatan Harapan (PH) works with it in the coming Johor state polls, political experts said.

Mazlan Ali, a senior lecturer at the Perdana Centre in Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, said the party should not let go of PH’s offer to work together.  

“Muda’s inspiration is similar to PH, their ideology is also the same.

“It will be good if PH tries to work with Muda as Muda could help to attract young voters, especially this time around where 18-year-olds will be allowed to cast their votes,” he told Malay Mail when contacted.

Muda president Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman confirmed on January 29 that the party will contest in the Johor state election.

The Muar MP reportedly said the Johor state polls, the first for Muda to contest, would be a new beginning for the party and that it aims to bring changes to the state.

However, it is uncertain at the moment which coalition Muda would choose to work with.

Mazlan pointed out the formula that should be adopted by PH now, which is to allocate seats among its component parties.

“They have to first do that otherwise it will be too late.

“Later, each component party can have their own separate negotiations with Muda on whether they can offer some of the seats to Muda,” he said.  

Weighing in on this, Universiti Malaya associate professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi said as of now it looks like Muda will go with Parti Pejuang Tanah Air and Warisan under a big umbrella.

“Whether or not they will work with PH depends on PH’s final discussions,” he said.  

He said one of the reasons why Muda may not go with PH could be that the Opposition coalition could only afford to spare a few seats and may refuse to work with Muda if they demand for more seats.

“If Muda decides to go with PH, they will benefit from PH grassroots support.

“But they must compromise at some point or risk not getting any support from PH,” he said.

Awang Azman added that Muda’s winning chances in the Johor state election will be low if they go in alone as they still bear an image of an ‘elitist’ party.

“This may not appeal to the Johor state seat constituents.

“They are still considered a city-centric party and the seats that will be contested in the state election do not have similar demographics as what big cities like Kuala Lumpur have,” he said.

On a similar note, a source close to PH said it is possible for the coalition to form an Opposition pact with Muda, but regarding seat allocations, the PH presidential council has the final say.

“If it is just an Opposition pact, there is a possibility that PH could work with Muda.

“But if it involves seat allocations this needs discussions at PH presidential council level as the final decision will not be determined at the state level,” the source told Malay Mail when contacted.

At the same time, the source said it is still unclear if Muda can help PH as the party is not that known in Johor.

“PH can work with Muda, there are many forms of cooperation.

“But whether or not Muda can attract the Undi-18 voters, this is unclear at the moment, as their leader, Syed Saddiq, could be popular in Kuala Lumpur but not necessarily in Johor,” said the source.

The source added that the state polls this time around will see an additional 756,000 voters under the Undi-18 electorate for the whole of Johor.  

Seats that will see an increase in voters by 10,000 to 20,000 are Mahkota, Mengkibul and Kempas; more than 40,000 are Puteri Wangsa (from 66,000 to 112,000) and Kota Iskandar (from 72,000 to 117,000).

“So the previous seat allocation formula can no longer be of used as there is a big change in voter count and category in affected seats.

“At the same time, some seats were won by Bersatu and these seats are in need of a new strategy,” said the source.

Currently, the PH presidential council has allocated 20 seats for PKR, 20 for Amanah and 16 for DAP.  

The Election Commission has set polling day for Johor on March 12, while early polling is on March 8. Nomination day has been set for February 26.

A premature state election was triggered in Johor last month after caretaker Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Hasni Mohammad from Umno sought the dissolution of the state assembly despite still holding a one-seat majority.