KOTA KINABALU, Aug 7 ― Despite repeated assurances that the state’s Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition government is intact, pundits believe it is actually on shaky ground even as it waits for the political uncertainties in Peninsular Malaysia to be resolved.
Analysts here say that state and federal government relations play a big role in the state’s well-being and any change at national level will almost certainly impact the state government too.
The biggest factor as to whether chief minister and state Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia chairman Datuk Hajiji Noor will be able to hold onto a stable government is how Sabah Umno chief Datuk Bung Moktar Radin will play his cards, now that relationship between Umno and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia has soured.
“Although Bung has repeatedly said that Umno will continue to support GRS, federal politics shall affect Sabah politics. This is especially true given the possibility of 'lompat katak' among some politicians from other parties, if not the politicians from Umno Sabah,” said UMS political analyst Romzi Ationg.
Because of the relatively narrow gaps in numbers between the government and the Opposition, any change in alliances or “political jumping” will rock the boat.
As it stands, Umno has 16 seats in GRS’s 48 seats in the 79-member House. PPBM has 15 seats.
As the whole country waits to see how the numbers will stack up for embattled Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin in Parliament next month, UITM political analyst Tony Paridi Bagang said that it is particularly worrying for GRS because Sabah has always been influenced by federal politics; keeping aligned means access to federal funds for the infrastructure and projects, among others.
“For them, it is about political survival. Some may also be motivated to jump by the threat of court action. This is why speculations are rife that GRS could be in a fragile position should there be a change of leadership,” he said.
Another analyst, Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun believes that Bung will keep the state government safe, and prove that the State Umno does have autonomy.
“Bung has turned out to be a politician who has indeed kept to his word ― he supported Hajiji in holding the post of chief minister and since then he hasn’t interfered in his leadership. In fact, he has been supportive in various matters.
“Of course, as an MP, he will follow the party’s decision to withdraw support for Muhyiddin as prime minister leading the PN government but he will still be playing a positive role in the state by keeping GRS intact and not even trying to grab or seize the CMship,” he said.
Bung, who is Kinabatangan MP, has uncharacteristically been silent on his stand following Umno’s announcement that 10 of its MPs have withdrawn support for the prime minister.
Yesterday, Bung issued a release saying only that Sabah Umno would abide by any of the central leadership’s decisions but with adaptations to the state.
Oh also said there was precedent to show that it is possible to be part of the Opposition and government at the state and federal level.
In the 1980s, Sarawak-based Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak, led by Tan Sri Leo Moggie, was a state Opposition but a federal minister.
In Sabah during the mid-1970s, United Sabah National Organisation (Usno) was Opposition at state level, while Berjaya was state government, but both were members of Barisan Nasional (BN) at the federal level.
Later, when Parti Bersatu Sabah became a part of BN in 1994, Usno remained in opposition at state level, even though they were still in BN.
“This is the reverse for Umno now,” said Oh. “With the autonomy granted to Sabah Umno, he can make it work so the GRS can stay,” he added.
Analysts say that the current power tussle at federal level is a good chance for Sabah leaders to show that they can walk their talk and put the interests of Sabah first.
“Again, this is the time for the Sabah Umno to prove to the rakyat that it is autonomous and has its own say in the state politics. Umno does have the numbers that make them a significant part of GRS but sometimes there are other factors that may persuade them (to leave), like patronage politics,” said Bagang.
However, the state GRS ― comprising some 10 parties from Perikatan Nasional (PN), Barisan Nasional and Parti Bersatu Sabah ― know that any disunity among them will give a distinct advantage to rivals Parti Warisan Sabah and this alone is a motivating factor to stay united.
The GRS, thrown together during the snap polls last September, has not always seen eye-to-eye, but has maintained a functional government that has allowed them to sail through hiccups while trying to gain more stability.
“For the sake of political stability in Sabah both have no choice but to maintain ‘good’ relations. Both know it will be a lose-lose situation if they can’t work things out. They were given the mandate by the rakyat in the snap polls with hopes that it ends the Sabah political crisis and they can stay focused to govern the state effectively,” he added.
