KUALA LUMPUR, June 26 — Political pundits have observed that Umno is raring for the general elections to be called early as it is confident it will benefit greatly from its new partnership with PAS under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) banner.
The same analysts also said the biggest loser in the loose PN pact is Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, the party led by Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and who is seen as a convenient ally to be in government.
“Umno is drooling over a snap general election as it is confident that now, with the PAS partnership in Muafakat, Umno is likely to win vastly more seats than in 2018, and they could really be firmly in the driver’s seat like before.
“Bersatu is welcome to lend its support to Umno as PAS does as an obedient, model coalition partner, otherwise Bersatu is next to immaterial in terms of going on its own electorally,” Oh Ei Sun told Malay Mail.
Yesterday, Umno deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan urged Putrajaya to hold snap elections, after Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong decided to do so on Tuesday.
Prior to him, other Umno leaders who have also made similar suggestions include the likes of vice-presidents Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob and Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid, and Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz.
The senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs sees Umno as most likely to take home more seats in a one-on-one fight in the 15th general election (GE15), compared to its other competitors, including Bersatu.
Before PN came about, Umno and PAS had already agreed to a political cooperation to prepare for GE15 under the Muafakat Nasional banner.
Political observers believe then that Umno will come out ahead in any contest where it does not have to duke it out with PAS, a long-time-rival-turned-ally. In past elections, both parties have fought for the same voter demographic base — the rural Malays.
GE14 saw Umno and PAS battling for 104 out of the 222 parliamentary constituencies. Some seats saw a multi-cornered battle between the two parties and those from the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition – mainly Bersatu and Amanah.
Prior to GE14, Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN) tended to carry the day on any three-corner fights but in the last polls, this traditional wisdom was upended with Umno and its BN allies suffering tremendous defeat.
The three-corner fights allowed PH to take Putrajaya, though PAS won back Terengganu and retained Kelantan as its power-base.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia geostrategist Azmi Hasan was of the same opinion as Oh. He pointed out that Bersatu under Muhyiddin is still in disarray due to internal squabbling.
As such, he believes most rural, and some urban, Malay voters will come to find Umno and PAS to be the more reliable Malay-based party compared to Bersatu, as well as Senior Minister Datuk Seri Azmin Ali’s political group.
Azmi and Oh also concurred on another point — that Umno’s official cooperation with PAS will grant both parties a huge advantage in any general contest.
“Judging from GE14 results alone and the current political sentiment, Umno is quite far ahead not only compared to Bersatu but also PAS.
“So, for Umno, calling for a snap election is strategically correct since when push comes to shove in seats allocation in PN, Umno no doubt has the upper hand,” said Azmi.
Independent political analyst Hoo Ke Ping too acknowledged that Umno will benefit a lot if snap elections are held this year, noting that the party has been eyeing 38 seats which it lost by a thin margin in GE14.
As for Bersatu’s fate, Hoo said that how Umno and PAS leaders treat Muhyiddin’s party will depend on how much respect they hold for the Pagoh MP.
Hoo went as far as to say that Bersatu’s survival actually depends on the respect that Muhyiddin can leverage from his own allies of convenience in Umno, naming its president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and past president Datuk Seri Najib Razak who still holds considerable political clout despite his ongoing corruption trials.
“The fate of Bersatu depends on how leaders such as Zahid and even Najib view Muhyiddin and how well they respect him. It is hard to say whether Bersatu would be the biggest winner or losers. It all depends on how well Muhyiddin leverages these relationships and how well he consolidates his base.
“It is not hard to see that Muhyiddin has a large and strong Malay support. There is also a good number of Chinese voters who respect Muhyiddin despite his cooperation with the likes of Umno.
“But this is simply due to certain segments of the Chinese community who are not happy with PH's past performance and antics,” said Hoo.
He predicted that if snap elections were called in March 2021, Bersatu will have enough time to consolidate its strength.
Recently, the Tokyo-based Nikkei Asian Review published a report citing anonymous sources claiming Muhyiddin was eyeing a March 2021 general election to legitimise his role as prime minister.
While neither PN or the deposed Pakatan Harapan (PH) have publicly proved their claimed level of support among federal lawmakers, it was believed that Muhyiddin’s support was now just four more than the 112 seats needed for a simple majority in Parliament.
