TOKYO, Oct 29 — Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is a self-confessed defence geek and train-lover whose snap election gamble backfired after his Liberal Democratic Party suffered its worst result in 15 years.

The disastrous outcome in Sunday’s election is a serious blow to 67-year-old Ishiba, a party veteran who is also a fan of 1970s pop idols and making military models.

Last month he saw off eight other candidates to become head of the conservative LDP, which has governed Japan almost uninterrupted for seven decades, albeit with frequent changes of leadership.

Taking office on October 1, he replaced Fumio Kishida, who suffered from discontent over rising prices, a slush fund scandal and LDP ties to a Christian movement in the wake of the 2022 assassination of ex-premier Shinzo Abe.

Ishiba’s decision to call an election days later was to "start afresh as a fair, just and sincere party”.

But his rhetoric for reform was not enough to convince voters.

According to projections from national broadcaster NHK and others, the LDP fell short of a majority for the first time since 2009.

Worse than that, even when combined with the seats won by long-term coalition partner Komeito, the LDP is expected to miss the required 233 seats in the lower house—a level that Ishiba set as his minimum goal.

By yesterday afternoon, Ishiba appeared to be fighting for his position, vowing to remain in office to avoid a "political vacuum”.

"I want to fulfil my duty by protecting people’s lives, protecting Japan,” he said in a speech.

Ishiba also said the biggest election factor was "people’s suspicion, mistrust and anger” over the slush fund scandal—which saw LDP figures pocket money from fund-raising events—and said he would enact reforms over "the issue of money and politics”.

‘New Japan’

Ishiba had four previous failed bids to lead the party, including in 2012 against his arch-rival Abe.

He long alienated party heavyweights with his "outspoken criticism of LDP policies under Abe”, said Yu Uchiyama, a politics professor at the University of Tokyo.

Barely a week in office, Ishiba called for elections.

"This is an attempt to create a new Japan that will drastically change the nature of Japanese society. In order to boldly carry out this major change, we need the confidence of the people,” he declared then.

He pledged to revitalise depressed rural regions and to address the "quiet emergency” of Japan’s falling population with measures to support families like flexible working hours.

In an apparent reference to China, Ishiba said that "today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia”, with the regional environment "the most severe since the end of World War II”.

He has also backed the creation of a regional military alliance along the lines of NATO to counter China, although he has since cautioned it would "not happen overnight”.

Economic policies

Ishiba’s support before becoming premier for the Bank of Japan’s exit from its ultra-loose policies sent the yen surging and stocks tumbling after he won the LDP leadership.

He steadied markets by stating the time was not right for more interest rate hikes.

His ratings edged down over the past weeks, not helped by him rowing back his position on issues including allowing married couples to take separate surnames.

The father-of-two also missed a chance to appear more modern by appointing only two women to his cabinet, down from five under Kishida.

Ahead of the election, Rintaro Nishimura at think-tank The Asia Group said that "Ishiba’s longevity as prime minister is in question”.

"There is a group of people (in the LDP) that could form a critical mass... and try and usher in a change. Not a change in government, but a change in leadership within the LDP.” — AFP