TOKYO, Dec 13 — Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is widely expected to announce a cabinet shake-up as soon as today as he seeks to stem the fallout from a fundraising scandal that has further dented public support for his administration.

Kishida has indicated that Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno — who holds one of the most powerful posts in government — is among those to be removed, the head of his ruling coalition partner Natsuo Yamaguchi said this morning.

Kishida as recently as yesterday said he wanted Matsuno, who coordinates policy across government on his behalf, to continue in his job.

Four cabinet ministers and several deputy ministers are expected to go, according to media reports, as prosecutors investigate whether some lawmakers received thousands of dollars in fundraising proceeds missing from official party accounts.

A motion of no-confidence in Kishida’s administration was also submitted by the opposition party today, but was comfortably voted down in a parliament where his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and partner Komeito have a clear majority.

Kishida is scheduled to hold a press conference later in the day to mark the end of the latest parliamentary session.

The Yomiuri newspaper said it is then that he will likely announce his plans for a cabinet shake-up. Details of the personnel changes may not come until tomorrow or later, other media outlets reported.

But analysts say a cabinet clearout is unlikely to draw a line under a scandal that has raised serious questions about Kishida’s leadership and thrown his government into disarray.

Koichi Hagiuda, a high-ranking official who oversees the ruling party’s proposals for budget plans, has decided to resign, broadcaster NHK and Kyodo news agency reported. Kishida is also considering shelving a planned trip to Brazil and Chile next month, the Mainichi newspaper said.

"At this stage the most Mr. Kishida can hope for is to arrest the current decline in his personal support,” said Corey Wallace, associate professor of political science and international relations at Kanagawa University.

"Increasing it, however, will require more than cosmetic changes to personnel.”

Embattled premier

While the prosecutors’ probe centres on lawmakers from the ruling party’s powerful "Abe faction”, investigators are also looking into whether Kishida’s faction — which he headed until last week — is also involved, according to media reports.

The factions are alleged to have hidden hundreds of millions of yen of political funds over years in a scheme that saw some lawmakers receiving proceeds from ticket sales to party events that were kept off the books.

Political analysts say any allegations directly implicating Kishida could further knock support for his administration, which has slumped to a record low of around 23 per cent in recent polls, the lowest since he came to office in 2021.

Support for the LDP has also fallen below 30 per cent for the first time since 2012, when it returned to power after a blip in its near total post-war dominance of Japanese politics, an NHK survey yesterday showed.

Kishida does not need to call an election until October 2025 at the latest, and a fractured and weak opposition has historically struggled to make sustained inroads into the LDP’s dominance.

The LDP is due to hold leadership elections in September, but analysts say it remains to be seen how long Kishida can hold on to his post. — Reuters