SEPTEMBER 29 — Despite having to deal with 17 friendly fires which was not resolved right up to polling day, versus nil friendly fire on the part of Warisan Plus coalition which gave the latter a very good opportunity to win the Sabah state election in what analysts had earlier predicted as a tight contest, against all odds, the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition led by Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin has won the day.

And in that 17 friendly fires where the parties in GRS were clashing with each other, Warisan Plus managed to win only six — a pathetic 35 per cent when it should be near 100 per cent, and to boot, all six are held by Warisan previously, with five incumbent assemblymen.

Meanwhile, out of 14 political frogs — which Sabah is well known for — that had shifted allegiance to Musa Aman which led to the snap election, a "respectable” 11 (79 per cent) were still fielded in the election. And out of these 11 — four (36 per cent) went on to win.

Hence, based on the election results in which GRS won a simple majority of 38 seats, a reinterpretation of Sabah politics is required in that it shows leap frogging is no longer a big issue there, as voters seemed to be forgiving, and friendly fires can be defined for what it is — a friendly fire among friends that ensures one of the friends will win.

Of course, one may argue that 38 seats is just one more seat necessary to form a government (37 seats) but initial report said all the three victorious independents have expressed their desire to be GRS-friendly state legislators, making the GRS tally to 41.

Moreover, with nil friendly fire and leap frogging among the Warisan Plus assemblymen before the election which should be punishable by the voters, logically speaking Warisan Plus should have garnered more than 32 seats (Warisan, 23 seats; DAP, 6 seats; PKR, 2 seats; and Upko, 1 seat) it had just won.

Although this was more than the 29 seats it won in the last state election (Warisan, 21; DAP, 6; and PKR, 2), but that was on the basis of a total of 60 seats then (48%). In the just concluded election, Warisan Plus garnered 32 seats out of 73 (44 per cent) — a 4 percentage point drop in the number of seats won.

This is as good as saying it was Warisan (being the party that had won the most seats or rather the party that had shown no improvement by losing two seats compared to DAP and PKR) that were being trounced.

So, what are the factors that can explain the trouncing of Warisan after making its debut in the political scene in 2018 by being the state government?

In my opinion, it’s Muhyiddin’s messaging on the need for a state government to be in alignment with the federal government that has sealed Warisan’s fate. And Muhyiddin did this without any threat to Sabah by simply emphasising that since resources are limited, the federal government can only help an opposition state government with the mandatory basic assistances required by the rakyat.

The experience of Sarawak is a case in point when through Muhyiddin’s intervention, the national oil company, Petronas, in June has agreed to pay in full the petroleum products sales tax imposed by Sarawak for the year 2019, which is in excess of RM2 billion, or 5 per cent of the products’ sales value.

This came as the two parties had reached an agreement on the management of Sarawak's oil and gas assets, and the sales tax on petroleum products, and that future petroleum products sales tax will be lower and staggered based on future negotiations, under the State Sales Tax.

The payment was made to the Sarawak government on September 17 while Sabah was in the throes of a surge in Covid-19 infections and campaigning had begun earnestly.

Yet, another factor is Muhyiddin’s hard work in going down the field in rural areas to make himself known to the voters. They actually have known him through seeing him on TV delivering rakyat-centric speeches that gave images of a caring "Abah” that is sensitive (prihatin) to the sufferings of the rakyat brought about by the economic downturn due to Covid-19.

He came across as genuine and sincere in all these images but nothing beats seeing him and assessing him up, close and personal when he was on the ground. And the verdict of the Sabah rural folks, majority of whom are the Kadazandusun Murut (KDM) communities, seems to be: "This is the guy we can trust and work with.”

This was the turning point that had caused a switch in support of the KDM communities from Warisan Plus especially the KDM dominated United Party Kinabalu Organisation (Upko) to GRS’ KDM dominated Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) and Parti Solidarity Tanah Airku (Star), with Upko being trounced by winning only one seat out of 12. To add salt to the injury, its president, Wilfred Madius Tangau lost his seat in Kiulu.

Muhyiddin’s presence on the ground was also attributed by some analysts as resulting in a last-minute switch of support from Barisan Nasional to Bersatu. In fact, the parties using the PN symbol (Bersatu, Sabah Progressive Party and Star) won the highest, with 17 seats in the GRS coalition.

The Sabah election, unnecessary as it were, because it was called due to a failed attempt at power grab, has put Muhyiddin in a tenable position with this unexpected victory, although at the Federal level nothing has changed.

With this victory, let’s hope there won’t be any more call for a snap election until the country is declared Covid-19-free and the economy is back on a firm footing, or the 15th General Election is called as schedule in 2023, whichever comes first.

The rakyat is getting election fatigue with each and every call for a snap election, and only the politicians are free of election fatigue.

* Jamari Mohtar is director of media and communications at think-tank EMIR Research.

** This is the personal opinion of the writer(s) or organisation(s) and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.