APRIL 27 — As we head towards the end of the 3 rd phase of the movement control order (MCO), the issue of striking the right balance between public health safety and economic survival becomes more acute.

As long as a vaccine is not yet ready, the possibility or high probability of a prolonged or extended MCO looms large in the government’s decision-making.

On April 23, scientists at Oxford University (collaboration between the Jenner Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine and the Oxford Vaccine Group) started on its human trials. The goal is to produce at least a million doses by this September.

Adrian Hill of the Jenner Institute has been quoted as saying that the "vaccines are being designed from scratch and (progressing) at an unprecedented rate. The upcoming trial will be critical for assessing the feasibility of vaccination against Covid-19 and could lead to early deployment.”

Not to be left out, Cambridge University has also been working on a vaccine for some time now. Professor Jonathan Heeney, Head of the Laboratory of Viral Zoonotics at the University of Cambridge is one of the lead persons in the project researching on a suitable antibody — using new technology developed for influenza and Ebola viruses.

And our very own Dr Amalina Bakri announced in her Twitter account on April 22 that she has been invited to participate in the clinical trials for a Covid-19 vaccine at the National Institute of Health Research, Imperial College’s Clinical Research Facility (as reported in the Rakyat Post).

Nearer to home, it was also reported today that the Director General of the Ministry of Health (MOH) has also announced that we will be exploring collaboration with selected countries with the hope that vaccine development as well as clinical trials would be based here.

There are currently 150 vaccine development projects round the world racing against time. These include:

• India — Scientists under the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) are testing whether a multi-purpose vaccine that has proved effective against leprosy and boosts immunity in hosts can be a critical part of a Covid-19 vaccine development.
• US: The development of a vaccine has been taking place alongside the limited but controversial use of the anti-malarial drug, hydroxychloroquine. The National Institutes of Health in collaboration with Moderna Inc. as well as Inovio Pharmaceuticals are moving to the next stage of experimentation.
• Germany: The Paul-Ehrlich-Institut (PEI) of the Federal Institute for Vaccines and Biomedicines has authorised the country’s first human trials for a vaccine jointly-developed by German firm, Biontech, and US giant – Pfizer.

Nonetheless, as we are at this stage still not out of the woods yet, the policy dilemma of balancing between public health safety and economic concerns — with the former outweighing the latter – remains the bias in the matrix of configuring the decision-making process.

As it is, the decision as to whether to extend or not the MCO depends on the expert advice of the MOH. And the government is currently planning further for the gradual relaxation of restrictions in the context of both an extended MCO as well as the post-MCO phase.

In this regard, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin when he announced the extension of the MCO for another two weeks till May12, also announced the relaxation of restrictions on travel for students and those trapped in their villages.

More than 100,000 students "trapped” in their schools and universities will be allowed to return home in their villages, along with those "trapped” at their villages when they were there just before the first MCO to return home so that they can report for work if their companies fall under the category of businesses allowed to operate under the MCO.

The SOPs for allowing these two groups to travel are being drawn now and will be announced in due course.

As such to repeat, at this stage in the development of a vaccine, public health consideration still overrides economic consideration.

Pending the outcome on the public health front vis-à-vis a vaccine, the Covid-19 pandemic has severely impacted on the global economy.

Thus, the introduction of vaccine and/or effective medication into the equation will be a game changer to cushion the severe impact on the economy caused by the lockdown brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Without vaccine and effective medication to fight the virus, things would not return to the normalcy that we are so used to all this while, since the only way this can be achieved is to ensure not only the lethal and unseen virus is defeated but also that it will never make a comeback once defeated.

When experts talk about a new normal in the future economic and social landscapes that we would see during the post Covid-19 pandemic, they are actually talking about the real possibility that the virus would always make a comeback after their initial defeat if social distancing measures and observing regularly personal hygiene, along with abandoning some traditional habits like shaking hands or getting into a warm embrace are thrown into the drain soon after the initial defeat.

That’s why one Harvard expert proposes an on and off social distancing measures be applied after winning the first battle against the virus. But really, the only way to defeat the virus for good is through vaccines or effective medication, which is still a very long way to go at this moment.

Which means countries the world over must make the adjustment now to a new normal in the economic and social landscapes that will definitely take shape post Covid-19.

Moreover, with the ability of the virus to naturally mutate into a more lethal strain as shown with its mutation from the SARS virus, without the need for this mutation to be artificially engineered in the laboratory, thereby putting paid to all conspiracy theories,

the question of how long the newly discovered vaccines and medication, if they can be indeed produced quickly, can contain the virus remains to be seen.

This means whether we like it or not, the question of coming to terms with a new normal is no longer a question of whether it will happen or not but rather how soon will it happen.

* Jamari Mohtar and Jason Loh Seong Wei are part of the research team at think tank EMIR Research.

** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.