FEBRUARY 11 — I read a news item with amusement on "PAS plans to discuss with partner Umno its proposal to move a vote of confidence in the leadership of Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad for him to continue his premiership until the end of his current term.”

Given the current situation where there is no vote of no confidence on Dr Mahathir and the Pakatan Harapan coalition does not seem to be collapsing, it is a bit mischievous for PAS to move the motion of confidence. It looks like they are trying to stir the honest nest on the issue of Pakatan Harapan leadership.

If the government has been formed and is running, there is already an implied "vote of confidence” in Parliament. The government of the day should be given it's full reign to run the country. There is no need for PAS to move a "vote of confidence” for Dr Mahathir to continue.

A "vote of confidence” usually happens when there is a hung parliament. Let's say, neither of the coalition of Barisan Nasional/PAS nor Pakatan Harapan command a majority in the Parliament. In this scenario, an independent member or a small non aligned political party gives their vote of confidence to a particular coalition to form the new government for the next term.

PAS and Umno would like the whole leadership debacle to prolong up until to the next election. Their likelihood of winning the next election is high if the leadership transition issue is prolonged because it shows great disunity amongst the parties in the ruling coalition. Unfortunately that is a very unhealthy scenario for country because everything seems to be on hold due to the leadership speculation.

Since there has been many speculations of what the possible scenarios are in an event of a leadership change or no change lets look at some possibilities that can happen.

Scenario 1

If Azmin Ali and his followers quit Parti Keadilan Rakyat and crosses over to join Umno or PAS, then the "vote of no confidence” or "vote of confidence” on the Prime Minister and his ruling coalition should be moved to see if Dr Mahathir commands the confidence of the majority in the House of Representatives.

Scenario 2

If Azmin and his followers quit PKR and joins Bersatu or Amanah, in this scenario it is neither PAS nor Umno's business to move any motion in the Parliament because Pakatan Harapan still command the majority seats in the Parliament.

It is Pakatan Harapan's business in deciding who to lead the coalition and hence the prime minister for that term. Any motion move by PAS can be easily defeated.

Scenario 3

If for whatever reason DR Mahathir reconfigure a new coalition with Umno and PAS, it is not likely the new coalition can continue to run the country because the voters clearly voted in Pakatan Harapan coalition to form the new government in the last election.

If the new reconfigured coalition (Barisan Harapan) managed to hold the majority of the seats in the Parliament, the people can demand a fresh election. The new reconfigured coalition lacks legitimacy. In the eyes of a religious person, that is "haram,” it is akin to stealing the election.

Although this scenario is not likely to happen. If it were to happen, the Agong might not swear in the new coalition government under Dr Mahathir because it does not reflect the voters' intention in the last election. Hence the Head of State can or might order a fresh election and a new mandate is required.

Scenario 4

Dr Mahathir steps aside to keep his word of passing on the baton to Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as the next Prime Minister. In that case, PAS can move a motion of "no confidence" on Anwar to test his command of the majority in the parliament.

If Anwar Ibrahim fail to command the confidence of the majority on the floor of the Parliament, then Pakatan Harapan can re-elect Dr Mahathir or Azmin to head their coalition. After the ruling coalition chooses a new leader is then when PAS can move any motion of confidence or no confidence on the new leader.

It is unfortunate that the split in PKR between Azmin and Anwar seems to be too deep to reconcile. If there is no split, Pakatan Harapan will not be in the present conundrum of being ineffective in carrying out coherent policies after forming the new government.

I think it is high time for Dr Mahathir take Scenario 4 for the sake of the country. That action alone can dispel all the unnecessary speculations or gossips on the leadership transition issue that wasted everybody's time.

The country cannot move forward at the present predicament. Scenario 4 also put a stop to all the speculations on whether Anwar Ibrahim should or should not be the next prime minister. He needs to proof that he commands the confidence of the majority parliamentarians in the house.

* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.