SINGAPORE, Jan 19 — The charging of former Transport Minister S Iswaran will likely have little impact on the plans for the People’s Action Party (PAP) leadership handover and the next General Election (GE), political analysts said.

This is because Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong would likely have factored in the possibility of the case going to trial.

Even if the trial takes longer than expected, the charging and Iswaran’s resignations as Member of Parliament (MP) and PAP member is a good enough conclusion to the investigation by the Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau (CPIB) and a clean slate for the ruling party to move ahead from there, they added.

However, pundits believe that the void left by the long-serving Iswaran in West Coast Group Representation Constituency (GRC) presents a challenge for PAP in the next GE — the party will have to find a suitable replacement who may come up against a tough electoral contest.

A total of 27 charges were filed against Iswaran, 61, on Thursday morning (Jan 18), mostly related to bribery and corruption involving more than S$384,300.

Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said to reporters around noon the same day that the plan for the leadership transition to take place before the next General Election "remains on track”.

For Ms Nydia Ngiow, the managing director of consultancy BowerGroupAsia, this assurance puts paid to any notion that the latest developments in the Iswaran case might derail PAP’s plans for a leadership handover and following that, an election.

"Given what Mr Wong indicated, we do not think that the timeline will be delayed,” she said.

"Rather, noting that this also depends on when the trial is concluded, it is more likely that the transition timeline could be pushed up to build on the momentum following any goodies that Mr Wong may announce in the 2024 Budget that will look to deal with rising costs of living and implement the outcomes arising from his Forward Singapore initiative.”

Independent political analyst Felix Tan agreed, adding that the situation has already "reached a finality”.

"The Attorney-General’s Chambers have already charged him, the CPIB report has been finalised, and Iswaran has resigned from the PAP. It’s already a clean slate (for Mr Wong).”

What about West Coast GRC?

What is less certain, though, is what is to come for West Coast GRC, and PAP’s chances of winning this hotly contested spot.

Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, a senior international affairs analyst with business consultancy Solaris Strategies Singapore, said that he thinks the loss of Iswaran will not necessarily lead to PAP losing the GRC, but there are big shoes that the party now needs to fill.

"Iswaran was a well-liked and popular MP at West Coast. With him not running, that’s where the PAP would need to strengthen (its lineup of candidates).”

Indeed, Dr Tan noted that the Progress Singapore Party (PSP) had put up a strong fight in West Coast GRC in GE 2020 — PAP had barely come out on top with 51.69 per cent of the votes in a tight contest.

"Given the nature of how Iswaran departed from the constituency, there might be residents who may be in favour of giving the Opposition a chance within the GRC,” he said, adding that whom PAP chooses to be the anchor minister helming the West Coast GRC team could potentially sway voters.

Associate Professor Bilveer Singh from the National University of Singapore (NUS) echoed these sentiments, saying that he believes PAP might not have enough high-profile political office-holders within its ranks to find a suitable replacement for Iswaran.

After all, aside from Iswaran, the party has also lost former Speaker of Parliament Tan Chuan-Jin, who had been a long-serving MP in Marine Parade GRC.

Mr Tan resigned last year over an extramarital affair with PAP MP Cheng Li Hui.

"(The party is) really short of people. If PSP’s Tan Cheng Bock, Hazel Poa and Leong Mun Wai (contest) in West Coast again, they might be in big trouble.”

Dr Tan, PSP’s chairman, led the team contesting West Coast GRC in GE 2020. Mr Leong and Ms Poa, who are now Non-Constituency MPs, were also part of the team.

Reputational damage limited

However, looking at the bigger picture, the analysts said that the way PAP has handled Iswaran’s case is, on the whole, a positive for the party’s reputation as one that is intolerant of corruption.

This strict alignment to the party’s values could impress younger voters who are perhaps seeing for the first time how the ruling party handles major crises involving their own members, Assoc Prof Singh said.

"The big picture here is this: They brought him to the dock and probably, they’ll send him to the political gallows... (The way PAP has handled this situation shows that) if you have broken the law, you will be punished,” he added.

Dr Felix Tan said that it is a plus for the party that the public has been able to observe PAP’s "systematic, clear-cut and honest investigation into its own team”.

"It’s one positive aspect of this entire case — it puts the PAP in good stead that it will not shy away from accusations and that it will do a thorough investigation.”

Code of conduct for ministers

In response to a reporter’s question on Thursday about how the Government might tighten the rules around how ministers should deal with gifts offered to them, Deputy Prime Minister Wong pointed to Singapore’s code of conduct for ministers, which states that they should not receive gifts that place them under obligation in a conflict-of-interest position.

The code, which details how ministers should act and arrange their personal affairs, has been in force since 1954 and has been updated periodically.

Mr Wong added that the Government would "continue to review and update the code, taking into account the experiences and learnings from this incident”.

Still, the analysts said that there was no need to take extreme measures with regard to the code, since there already are enough checks and regulations to ensure that gifts, in whatever form, are reported within the ministries.

"I am not sure how much further the ministerial code of conduct could be more specific or be tightened, or both, before it becomes a draconian piece of legislation,” Dr Felix Tan said.

Dr Mustafa said that the code is meant to "provide broad contours” for ministers’ conduct.

Rather than fixing what is not broken, he added that "we should, where possible, create greater public awareness of how this system (of preventing corruption) works and how the ministerial code operates”. — TODAY