SINGAPORE, Jan 4 — The next 12 months are set to be the most politically significant year for Singapore since 2004, when the country last underwent a leadership transition in the highest echelon.

This year marks the 20th — and expected to be the last — year of Mr Lee Hsien Loong’s premiership, with the baton to be handed over to Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.

Mr Lee said in November last year during the yearly convention of the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) that he will hand over the reins before the party’s 70th anniversary on Nov 21 in 2024 if all goes well. He also said that he intended to do so before the next General Election (GE), which is due by November 2025.

This was the most concrete timeline given, after he had signalled his intention to step down as early as 2012 that he aimed to hand over the reins of power by the age of 70 in 2022. However, the plan was delayed by the Covid-19 crisis.

While the top leadership transition between Mr Lee and Mr Wong will be Singapore’s first in 20 years, it will be the third in the nation’s history.

Mr Lee took over in Aug 12, 2004 from Mr Goh Chok Tong, who in turn succeeded founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew in Nov 28, 1990.

With the latest succession clock set in motion, political analysts previously told TODAY that there are some markers to watch out for in the coming months, including Mr Wong’s delivery of Budget 2024 on Feb 16 — which will set the tone for the Forward Singapore initiative launched by the fourth generation (4G) of Singapore’s political leaders — and potentially a major Cabinet reshuffle.

Political commentator Eugene Tan, who is law lecturer at Singapore Management University (SMU), said that in the coming months, Mr Wong will need to show that he is his "own man” and "equal to the task of leading Singapore in a more uncertain, precarious world”.

Indeed, the political agenda for the year will be a busy one, analysts interviewed in the past fortnight said. This is not just for Mr Wong and his 4G team to come to the fore even more, but also for Mr Lee to clear the deck and settle outstanding matters from his tenure before handing over power.

These include matters such as Transport Minister S Iswaran’s corruption probe, as well as finding replacements for vacated seats in several Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs).

On the agenda as well may be a final farewell speech by Mr Lee to the people of Singapore, which some analysts believe will be delivered during the National Day Rally in August.

PM Lee’s to-do list

Before that happens, analysts are expecting that Mr Lee — who is also PAP’s secretary-general — will seek to resolve several outstanding issues both at the national and party levels before handing the reins over to Mr Wong, who can then begin his premiership on a relatively clean slate.

One such issue is the ongoing corruption probe involving Mr Iswaran.

While Mr Lee cannot dictate the timing and progress of the investigation, analysts said that the findings will likely be disclosed this year because such a high-profile matter cannot be dragged out for too long.

Independent political analyst Felix Tan said: "(Singaporeans) are wondering whether there will be some clarity, closure to the entire (corruption) saga, and it won’t be fair for (Mr Wong) to take over the helm with such a big case outstanding.”

The outcome of the investigation will affect another item on Mr Lee’s to-do list: Working with Mr Wong to fine-tune PAP’s GE strategy.

Mr Iswaran has taken a step back from his Member of Parliament (MP) duties in West Coast GRC since the corruption probe began. In September last year, Parliament voted to fully consider the matter of his MP duties only after the investigation is concluded.

This leaves a question mark over his seat in West Coast GRC.

In addition, there were the resignations of Tampines GRC MP Cheng Li Hui and Marine Parade GRC MP Tan Chuan-Jin — who was also the Speaker of Parliament — over an extramarital affair, and Jurong GRC MP and former Senior Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam’s appointment as the country’s president.

Given that Mr Tan and Mr Tharman were the anchor ministers for their respective GRCs in the previous GE in 2020, their departures would leave significant holes for the PAP to fill ahead of the next GE.

On top of this, West Coast GRC anchor Iswaran’s future at the constituency also hangs in the balance.

Mustafa Izzuddin, senior international affairs analyst at consultancy firm Solaris Strategies Singapore, said: "It is important (for the PAP) that where (the vacated seats) are based, whether those constituencies are strong enough to go into an election and win.”

On Mr Lee’s agenda will also be a farewell to Singaporeans.

"He has said his farewell to his party at the party convention, but he hasn’t said farewell to people of his country yet, and the platform he will do so is worth looking at,” Mustafa said.

He believes that Mr Lee will likely address the nation as prime minister for the last time in August during the National Day Rally.

To that end, Mustafa believes that the handover will happen some time between August and October, which will be right before the PAP’s next party convention in November.

New leader coming to the fore

While Mr Lee prepares for his exit, 2024 will be a crucial year for Mr Wong to further show his mettle and gain the support of Singaporeans, the analysts said. The Forward Singapore exercise and Budget 2024 will likely be two key opportunities he will seize to do so, they added.

PAP activists last interviewed by TODAY had expressed their confidence in Mr Wong’s ability to do well, especially after seeing how he led the national Covid-19 task force as well as the Forward Singapore exercise so far.

The Forward Singapore exercise was first launched in 2022 with an initial year-long consultation with more than 200,000 Singaporeans that culminated in a report in October last year, which presented the 4G leaders’ vision of how national policies should be shaped in all areas of society, from health to education to housing.

Analysts said that the exercise gave Singaporeans a taste of what Mr Wong’s leadership would be like.

Gillian Koh, senior fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), said that the Forward Singapore report provided a "large, comprehensive agenda for policy reform”.

"(It is) unlikely to be a one-year affair but something to be achieved over a decade to have full effect, (so) it provides a blueprint for a new administration under Mr Wong,” Koh added.

Budget 2024 will be a good signal as to how the ideas in the Forward Singapore report could be executed in real life. "(The) national budget... will provide a fillip to this reform agenda,” Koh said.

The PAP activists interviewed by TODAY before had also said that they do not foresee major changes underway with the transition, given that the party’s overarching direction and values remain.

However, they anticipated that Mr Wong and the 4G leadership will adopt a slightly different leadership approach, having to deal with their own unique challenges.

Political observer and former Nominated MP Zulkifli Baharudin said that Mr Wong’s more consultative style of governance can only take flight if people feel that their voices are heard.

"(Mr Wong) has to make changes in his agenda that people want to see, and he has to spend time telling Singaporeans what his future team will look like,” he added. "All the feedback has to amount to something.”

In the more immediate future, some analysts expect a refreshed Cabinet line-up ahead of the leadership transition, to steer Singapore in the next lap.

Koh said: "Mr Lee, but more critically Mr Wong, has to decide who has the potential among the ministers of state and parliamentary secretaries — not to mention current backbenchers — to provide stronger, strategic yet empathetic leadership to Singapore and Singaporeans in this age of radical uncertainty.”

Will GE be held in 2024?

Most analysts believe that the next GE will likely occur in 2025 but they do not rule out the possibility of it being held in late 2024.

Mustafa said that a 2025 GE will give Mr Wong more time to "have a good feel of what’s happening on the ground” and assemble the necessary party machinery to launch a strong election campaign.

And although Mr Lee had said that he intends to hand over power before the next GE, Assoc Prof Tan from SMU noted that "nothing’s cast in stone for the handover timeline”.

There are many factors other than the handover that could lead PAP to determine the best time to hold the elections, and this could mean that it happens sooner rather than later, he added.

This could be because the Budget and the policy shifts associated with Forward Singapore could potentially "sit well” with Singaporeans and give PAP an upper hand.

"The ruling party might want to seek a strong mandate for the measures to be announced then and support for other measures to be implemented over the next few years,” Assoc Prof Tan said.

An increasingly volatile world could also lead the Government to call for an earlier election.

"The various conflicts in the world might escalate with more economic ramifications and as GE 2020 showed, there need not necessarily be a flight to safety (of the PAP) even in an economic downturn,” Assoc Prof Tan said.

"An earlier handover than expected might be advantageous to the 4G team in that its stepping up could be read as yet another endorsement for the team to lead Singapore in uncharted waters.”

After all, the GE will ultimately be called when the incumbent party feels that it has the best chances of winning the most seats, the analysts said.

Mr Zulkifli, the former Nominated MP, said: "The actual day of the election is something that will be kept (under wraps) until the last minute.

"It is the privilege of the incumbent to decide on the timing of the election... As long as the party feels it is ready and it is the best time to get a popular mandate, it will do it.”

What about the opposition parties?

While the ruling party keeps itself busy with the leadership transition and preparations for the next GE, the opposition parties will not be sitting on their hands either.

Assoc Prof Tan said that the opposition parties will broadly support the handover of political leadership, but he would not be surprised if they also "sense an opportunity heading to the next GE”, given that political transitions "tend to see PAP being vulnerable electorally” on the evidence of past elections.

For instance, Mr Goh Chok Tong’s first GE in 1991 after becoming prime minister a year earlier saw PAP lose four seats, up from two in GE 1988.

In the GE 2006, two years after Mr Lee became prime minister, PAP had a vote share decline of 8.7 percentage points from GE 2001, though it did not lose any additional seats.

The analysts said that PAP will most likely use its Forward Singapore agenda to help boost its electoral hopes, while the opposition parties will scrutinise any new policies leading up to the next GE.

In particular, opposition MPs from the Workers’ Party (WP) and Progress Singapore Party will likely take the opportunity to up the ante in debating policy changes in Parliament.

"We can expect the ruling and opposition parties to lock horns not so much on the seven policy shifts but rather on how to implement the shifts and whether enough public funds would be allocated,” Assoc Prof Tan said.

As for the four smaller opposition parties — Peoples Voice, Reform Party, People’s Power Party and Democratic Progressive Party — which had recently formed an alliance known as People’s Alliance, they will have to double down on their efforts to gain public support ahead of the next GE.

"Their prime approach is to reduce the level of fragmentation of the field, to coalesce and presumably promote more coherent brands and manifestos to improve their mindshare among voters,” Koh from IPS said.

"(But) voters will probably only notice the personalities behind them because it takes a lot of effort to craft statements of political beliefs, proposed policy approaches and push these out convincingly... in time for the next GE.”

WP faces challenges of its own, one of which is an ongoing police investigation into the conduct of WP secretary-general and Leader of the Opposition Pritam Singh, as well as WP vice-chair Faisal Manap, in relation to hearings for the case of former party member Raeesah Khan before a parliamentary committee.

Assoc Prof Tan said that it is still not certain if the investigations will be completed this year, but any developments would have a bearing on the next GE.

"It will add an edgy dimension to the election.”

Added to that is the long-running case brought against several WP leaders and other members by Aljunied-Hougang Town Council (AHTC) and Sengkang Town Council for allegedly misusing public funds.

The trial concluded last year after a six-year stretch, but the costs for the trial have not been settled and will be decided only after damages have been assessed.

Backed by a KPMG audit report, the town councils charged at trial that the defendants had made improper payments worth more than S$33.7 million to FMSS and its subsidiary FMSI.

Mr Singh and two other WP leaders, Ms Sylvia Lim and Mr Low Thia Khiang, are liable to Sengkang Town Council for their negligence in allowing control issues to persist in its payment system.

Additionally, Ms Lim and Mr Low are liable to AHTC over the same payment matters, while Ms Lim is liable for a third issue — negligence to Sengkang Town Council for awarding a contract to a more expensive vendor.

Felix Tan said that should Ms Lim be declared bankrupt, she will likely not be able to contest in the next GE.

This will mean that WP will have to relook its slate of candidates and plug a gap in Aljunied GRC, which is already one man down with the exit of former member Leon Perera, who resigned in July last year along with WP member Nicole Seah after lying to the party about their extramarital affair.

"If that is the situation, then there’ll be some implications to the WP team, especially in Aljunied GRC. There is a need for WP to find a strategy that will manage any possible fallout from these issues.”

However, Assoc Prof Tan said that whatever the outcome of the case, it is unlikely to have an impact on public sentiment towards WP.

"The suit so far has not been a severe limitation to WP’s electoral prospects, even in GE 2020,” he added. — TODAY