SINGAPORE, June 10 — A major Cabinet reshuffle and a by-election in Jurong are both unlikely when Senior Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam vacates his posts to contest the presidency, said political observers.

Although Tharman has held many important portfolios throughout his career, the 66-year-old is part of the "outgoing” third generation (3G) leaders from the People’s Action Party (PAP) whose departure may have a less direct impact on ministries, some analysts said.

And while he is the anchor minister for Jurong Group Representation Constituency (GRC), where he has served as a Member of Parliament (MP) for 22 years, his resignation this July would not constitute a legal trigger for a by-election.

Tharman, who is also Coordinating Minister for Social Policies, announced on Thursday (June 8) his intention to retire from politics to contest the Presidential Election, which must be held by September.

The analysts said that his departure from Jurong GRC might attract more interest among opposition parties to contest there in the next general election (GE).

Nonetheless, his absence does not promise aspiring contestants an easier fight, said the analysts, as it would be dependent on a myriad of other factors.

No major Cabinet rejig expected

Associate Professor of Law at the Singapore Management University Eugene Tan said: "There will be a Cabinet reshuffle even if Tharman did not tender his resignation yesterday to run for the presidency.

"Prime Minister Lee (Hsien Loong) has made it an annual practice to reshuffle his Cabinet,” said Assoc Prof Tan, a political analyst and former Nominated Member of Parliament.

Agreeing, political observer and former PAP member Inderjit Singh said that while a reshuffle may happen as a preparation for the next General Election, "it won’t be because of this move by Tharman”.

Dr Felix Tan, a political analyst from the Nanyang Technological University, acknowledged that Tharman has been "a very huge, influential figure in government”.

However, he added that the long-serving politician comes from the "outgoing 3G leadership”. His departure would have less direct impact on the day-to-day running of specific ministries and thus would not necessarily trigger a reshuffle.

Even if a reshuffle is in order, the analysts believe that no drastic changes would occur.

Assistant Professor Elvin Ong from the National University of Singapore said: "A drastic change in portfolios for the new 4G team would be a distraction away from the presidential campaign.”

If Lee so decides to move bodies to fill up the Cabinet roles left by Tharman, the analysts floated a few potential names.

"DPM Heng Swee Keat could be in the frame to take over from Tharman as Senior Minister,” said Assoc Prof Tan.

"Heng could be given the role of Coordinating Minister for Social Policies, in addition to him continuing as Coordinating Minister for Economic Policies.”

Tharman on Thursday had also announced that he would be resigning from his positions as chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, deputy chairman of Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC and chairman of the Economic Development Board's International Advisory Council.

Asst Prof Ong said Heng would make the "most obvious choice” to replace Tharman in those capacities.

"(Heng) is currently not just the Coordinating Minister for Economic Policies, but also a board member of MAS and director of GIC,” he added.

Nydia Ngiow, managing director of consultancy BowerGroupAsia (Singapore), suggested that Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong might possibly see his role expanded.

She said that Wong is well-placed to take over as Coordinating Minister for Social Policies as he is spearheading the Forward Singapore initiative and has been "leading Budgets that focused on strengthening Singapore’s social compact”.

Dr Tan highlighted National Development Minister Desmond Lee as yet another possible name, as he describes the minister as "up and coming” and having the experience to perform the role.

Lee is Minister-in-charge of Social Services Integration and was Minister for Social and Family Development until 2020.

No by-election in sight

In the wake of Tharman’s announcement, opposition party Red Dot United (RDU) made a call on social media for a by-election to be held in Jurong GRC, where it contested in 2020.

On Friday, RDU secretary-general Ravi Philemon told TODAY that his party has also written in to the prime minister to urge him to hold a by-election.

Nonetheless, political observers were largely unanimous that voters in Jurong will not be choosing new MPs anytime soon, not in the least because of legal precedent.

"The Constitution, read with the Parliamentary Elections Act, is clear that no by-election is required in a GRC unless all the seats have been vacated,” said Assoc Prof Tan.

Jurong GRC was gazetted in the 2020 general election as one of six constituencies where at least one of the candidates in each contesting group must be a person belonging to the Indian or other minority communities.

However, Assoc Prof Tan added: "The mere resignation of a GRC MP does not trigger a by-election even if the resignation is of an MP who is from the designated minority race for the GRC.”

The apex court had confirmed this in 2019, after Madam Halimah Yacob, then an MP for Marsiling-Yew Tee, resigned in 2017 to later run for presidency.

Similarly, when then Workers’ Party parliamentarian Raeesah Khan resigned from the party and as an MP in 2021, a by-election was not called in Sengkang GRC, the political observers noted.

The political pundits added that it also makes no difference that Tharman is the anchor minister helming Jurong GRC.

"The idea of an anchor minister is the PAP’s alone and is not prescribed in any law,” said Assoc Prof Tan.

Agreeing, Asst Prof Ong added: "The term is merely a concept invented to describe the outsized role of a particular candidate in a team of candidates.”

Dr Tan said that the prime minister has the prerogative to call for a by-election even if he is not legally required to.

However, Dr Tan believes that this would be unlikely.

Firstly, he said that Tharman’s resignation would allow other members of the team to step up and show how well they can still serve the residents despite his absence.

Secondly, it would be too close to the next general election.

Singh said that the ruling PAP "will not risk a by-election at this stage, especially if they plan to call for a GE within the next one year”. The next GE is due by 2025.

No promise of easy win in Jurong 'hot seat'

Essentially, this means that the Opposition will have to wait for the next GE to contest Jurong GRC.

"Tharman was a heavyweight and, arguably single-handedly, won Jurong GRC in the last GE as in earlier GEs,” said Assoc Prof Tan.

Experts said that his absence may affect PAP’s hold over the constituency to a certain extent and tempt opposition parties to consider contesting there, with some analysts calling it a potential "hot seat”.

"I'll probably expect there'll be a four-cornered fight in Jurong GRC this time around, rather than the two-cornered one the last time,” said Dr Tan.

Besides RDU which contested in 2020, he pointed out that the Progress Singapore Party (PSP) and the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) "are very strong in the western parts of Singapore”, so they are easily identified among supporters.

He noted that SDP had contested in Jurong before, while PSP had considered putting a team there in 2020 before deciding to contest in the neighbouring West Coast GRC.

When contacted by TODAY, PSP declined to comment while SDP has yet to respond.

When asked if RDU will be stepping up its efforts on the ground given Tharman’s imminent departure, Philemon said that the party’s efforts remain "consistent” and unaffected by this development.

On other parties potentially eyeing the ward, he said: "We cannot control other parties' actions.

"Our focus is on the people's interests in Jurong GRC and we are prepared for an electoral contest to represent these interests, with or without Tharman in the mix.”

Singh preferred not to overstate the impact of Tharman's absence in the next General Election.

"I do expect Jurong to continue to have strong support as the goodwill created by the current team under Tharman will last for at least a few more years and people will still reward the PAP for good work done in the past,” he said.

Ultimately, analysts agreed that the eventual outcome at the polls would transcend the long-serving MP.

"It really depends on what opposition party is contesting in that area, who is in the PAP team, and what the prevailing electoral sentiments are,” said Asst Prof Ong. ― TODAY