OCT 24 — It’s a too familiar cliché: That the journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step.

Sure, but keep walking one thousand miles in the opposite direction and it takes two thousand steps to double back and head to the intended destination.

So, it pays to think about the first step, a lot before commencing. Why a scout patrol leader prefers a compass rather than a troop of eager beavers with good hearts filled with good thoughts.

Which came to mind reading Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli’s pronouncement that the government just had to move first — and figure out details later — to maintain inertia.

Obviously, he defended the genius of differentiated pricing for RON95 at petrol stations beginning the middle of 2025. In around 240 days, different Malaysians pay different prices for the same fuel.

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim as finance minister announced last week the end of RON95 subsidies next year for wealthier Malaysians, therefore saving RM8 billion unspent subsidies.

Market price for RON95 is currently RM2.76 (according to PaulTan.org) per litre as compared to actual selling price of RM2.05.

The vast number of regular folks with all kinds of private vehicles, cars and motorcycles continue paying RM2.05.

The minority, the luckier ones in our society, pay market price.

Again, Rafizi feels in time, or in 240 days they’d figure out who is in the lucky group.

The Internet is abuzz — debating which data from the department of statistics, PADU registration, household population, household location, tax filings and EPF savings are to be prioritised — speculating the calculation method.

I teeter listening to which T — 1, 20, 15 or a new hybrid version — gets excluded from the subsidised list.

Regardless of conditions, the T bracket forced to pay market price for RON95 fuel has to be substantial, otherwise the savings will not exceed RM8 billion. The exercise turns foolish, taking a thousand steps to achieve scantily anything.

Also consider, the super-rich drive nice cars which require nice care which means preferring the nicer RON97 petrol which is already not subsidised.

That’s one potential pitfall.

This column previously argued for RON95 fuel rationalisation, however via a blanket reduction of subsidies in stages until it disappears, as implemented by our neighbours.

All people to lose all RON95 subsidies eventually. Not just target the rich. It only encourages cheating and is ineffective to dampen RON95 smuggling to Thailand.

An indiscriminate stage by stage withdrawal from fuel subsidies is the cleverer way but that is not the way chosen by the government.

The government insists on a hybrid, to allow most to carry on with subsidised fuel and to disallow the wealthy this privilege. But to separate them, everyone has to be screened continuously.

If the card says so

The crux today is about how to do it. If it is practical.

The method determines the outcome.

Tried to access working models from around the world, where customers are differentiated at the kiosk, but unfortunately without success.

Malaysia prides itself in doing things a bit differently from the rest of the world.

Likely they will lift their solution from the ongoing subsidised diesel control system, in effect since early this year. They will use fleet cards to identify vehicles at fuel stations.

For the diesel subsidy quota system, transportation-related commercial vehicles — lorries, buses and catering vans for instance — are registered by their companies with the domestic trade ministry.

In their registration, they list their preferred retail petroleum company, up to three brands. Once approved by the ministry, the fleet cards are issued with a subsidy quota allocation.

As long as they are within the quota, they pay RM2.15 per litre as compared to the retail price of RM3.35. Subsidise RM120 per 100 litres. Transport companies pay less at the kiosk after verification and petrol companies claim subsidy arrears from the government later.

While scalable for a few hundred thousand companies liaising for their fleet with the ministry, RON95 is the lifeblood for millions of individual Malaysians. It’s a whole different level of implementation.

There are over 200,000 commercial vehicles registered as of June under the diesel scheme, while the total number of vehicles stand at an astounding 33 million vehicles.

Processing fleet cards for 85 per cent of Malaysians will be cumbersome and complicated. Unlike commercial vehicles, private vehicles are shared by household members.

Will petrol station attendants inspect fleet cards, and if unsatisfied deny patrons subsidised fuel? In the Klang Valley, petrol attendants are menial foreign workers, how likely are they to object? Will there be queues at stations as it takes longer for each customer to be verified?

Commercial drivers wait with inexhaustible patience to access subsidised diesel since it is their job, just like how city taxis using natural gas vehicles (NGV) used to plan their day and trips according to which Petronas station to head to for NGV. It’s a job. They suffer through it.

Private vehicle owners will lack the patience to endure waits at petrol stations as one by one each patron is inspected. Yet they are dependent on subsidised RON95.

Will arguments turn to altercations to punch-ups around the pump?

The process to monitor tens of thousands of pumps across the country daily all year round can add to operational costs for petrol stations.

For years, foreign cars (Thai and Singaporean) are barred from using RON95, but is the rule enforced? Many city stations have skeleton staff after hours, only at the till. In this new regiment, are stations required to man their pumps at all operating hours?

Look at Singapore for implementation related to fuel. The "almost full-tank before border crossing rule”.

Singapore registered cars cannot exit the republic with less than three-fourths of their tanks filled. If they infringe, they’d pay a S$500 (RM1600) fine on the spot at the causeway and are required to U-turn back to Singapore proper, refill their tanks if they desire to attempt again to cross the border.

The penalty and the likelihood of being caught scares Singaporean vehicle owners. Would Malaysia enact laws of our own to punish those who knowingly access subsidised fuel when they are ineligible?

There are more questions than answers, but as the minister concluded, details can be ironed out.

More than a spot of bother

Those marked as the right T to charge are going to find a way around because as my intern told me "buses are for migrants”.

In a car culture Malaysia, citizens averse to public transportation rake up high mileage with multiple vehicles in a month. They have an incentive to circumvent and seeing most Malaysians exempted, they will also want to be.

This column barely scratches the surface.

With an uncertain system in place, inefficient civil service to enforce it, reluctant petrol stations to monitor and report abuses, the selected segment targeted to pay full price eager to circumvent and potentially queues growing outside petrol stations, there is every reason to fear the worst.

That the government goes through a very tedious process only to have a low adherence turning the subsidy bill saver into a cost centre.

At this point, the memories of the first step resurface.

Whether this step was D-Day or Little Bighorn. Brave with visionary wisdom or foolhardy with a lot of gas.

First steps by definition cannot be right or wrong at inceptions. But they can be regretted for lightyears with the weight of black holes ad infinitum.

* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.