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Asia shares stutter on diverging takes of China’s stimulus pledges
People take pictures on an overpass with a display of stock information in front of buildings in the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai. — Reuters pic

SINGAPORE, Oct 14 — Asian stocks swung between gain and loss today as investors struggled to reach a consensus view on China’s economic stimulus promises made over the weekend which, though broad, were light on specifics.

Minister of Finance Lan Foan at a closely watched news conference on Saturday pledged to "significantly increase” debt, but left investors guessing on the overall size of the stimulus, a detail needed to gauge the longevity of a stock market rally.

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"Most onshore investors believe Beijing’s decision to restructure local government and housing debt using central government funds is more significant than many foreign investors believe,” said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a client note.

The divergence was apparent today, after shares in Hong Kong opened slightly lower and were choppy in early trade, contrasting sharply with their mainland Chinese peers which got off to a strong start.

The Hang Seng Index last traded a marginal 0.01 per cent lower, while the CSI300 blue-chip index rose 1.6 per cent.

Property stocks onshore and offshore, however, eked out solid gain as investors bet the latest stimulus measures could aid China’s beleaguered property sector.

The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index advanced 2.2 per cent, while the CSI300 Real Estate Index jumped 3.7 per cent.

The mixed picture left MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan down 0.11 per cent, after having fallen 1.7 per cent last week as the Chinese stocks rally hit pause.

Trading in Asia was thinned today with Japan out for a holiday.

US stock futures similarly edged lower, with S&P 500 futures losing 0.1 per cent while Nasdaq futures fell 0.25 per cent.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures eased 0.08 per cent and 0.05 per cent, respectively.

Also in a blow to China’s growth outlook, consumer inflation unexpectedly eased in September while producer price deflation deepened, data yesterday showed.

Reflecting the lingering concerns over the Chinese economy, the onshore yuan slipped 0.11 per cent to 7.0743 per US dollar, while its offshore counterpart fell by a greater extent of 0.2 per cent to 7.0828 per dollar.

Oil prices also fell by more than US$1 a barrel today on worries about waning Chinese demand for the commodity.

Brent crude futures were last down 1.32 per cent at US$78 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 1.3 per cent to US$74.58 per barrel.

Still, the latest raft of stimulus pledges prompted analysts at Goldman Sachs to raise their real gross domestic product forecast for China this year to 4.9 per cent from 4.7 per cent.

"While we have upgraded our cyclical view on the back of the more forceful and coordinated China stimulus, our structural view on China’s growth has not changed,” the analysts wrote in a client note.

"The ‘3D’ challenges — deteriorating demographics, a multi-year debt deleveraging trend, and the global supply chain de-risking push — are unlikely to be reversed by the latest round of policy easing.”

China’s third-quarter GDP data is due on Friday.

Elsewhere, movement in currencies was largely subdued, with the US dollar continuing to draw support from reduced bets of an outsized Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month.

Against a basket of currencies, the greenback hovered near a seven-week high at 103.03.

Traders have priced out any chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in November after data last week showed consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in September and recent economic releases have also underscored strength in the labour market.

Sterling fell 0.13 per cent to US$1.3050 while the euro eased 0.11 per cent to US$1.0923.

A reading on UK inflation is due later this week, as is an interest rate decision from the European Central Bank. — Reuters

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