KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 26 — Malaysia’s chances of adapting to global warming cannot solely depend on domestic policy but must include more aggressive international action, Khazanah Research Institute (KRI) said in its latest report on the climate crisis.

The KRI report was released last Friday, ahead of a controversial US$300 billion climate deal reached in Azerbaijan over the weekend on how world governments will deal with planetary warming that drove a bigger wedge between developed and developing nations.

In its report, the local think tank said that while Malaysia has been a keen adopter of climate initiatives set out by the 2015 Paris Agreement, domestic action has played a relatively small role in global climate stabilisation because of the country’s relatively small share of emissions.

The South-east Asian nation with a population of 33 million has been a net positive emitter only since 2004 due to significant carbon sinks mostly in the form of forests, accounting for just 0.4 per cent of total global emissions.

"Domestic mitigation action alone — at an estimated minimum cost of RM1.2-RM1.3 trillion — cannot perceptibly reduce Malaysia’s risk to climate impacts unless big emitters engage in big cuts,” KRI said in the report.

"The tragedy of climate change is that the world is dependent on some of its most selfish, irresponsible yet powerful states in order to save itself from climate catastrophe.

"Safeguarding Malaysia’s future climate security requires assessment of international relations and strategic interventions to build favourable outcomes for the long-term survival and prosperity of our small nation-state,” it added.

Recommendations for Malaysia

The think tank said that Malaysia may have taken some policy missteps that it now needs to rectify.

In 2021, it waived the external conditionality in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement set ahead of the Glasgow climate summit in 2021, a move researchers said may have given the wrong signal that it was a developing country that does not need climate-related financial assistance.

"Malaysian policy is currently focused on signalling high mitigation ambition; it has no hedging strategy,” the KRI researchers said.

"Care must be taken when committing to substantial financial expenditure or a major shift in energy security policy that they do not result in unacceptable curtailment of Malaysia’s limited state power and development potential,” they added.

KRI said Malaysia would need to quickly adapt, urging Putrajaya to calibrate its climate strategy "to signal both constructive international action and hedge against risk of system failure.”

COP29 controversy

The US, the European Union, China, Japan and Russia alone account for half the world’s GHGs, and there is a global consensus that they should bear much of the financial costs to tackle the fallout from climate change.

Over the weekend, rich countries pledged to contribute US$300 billion (about RM1.3 trillion in current exchange rate) a year by 2035 after two weeks of intense negotiations at the United Nations climate summit (COP29), where some 200 nations gathered in Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku.

However, the deal has been sharply criticised by many climate activists.

Developing nations said the amount is far below what is adequate to help poorer nations repair and build infrastructures and put in place policies to mitigate and adapt to global warming.

Despite the adoption of a broader target of US$1.3 trillion annually by 2035, only US$300 billion was designated for grants and low-interest loans, most of it expected to be delivered by the private sector.

South-east Asia is one of the most climate-vulnerable regions and in Malaysia, global warming has worsened floods and fuelled prolonged heat waves, causing billions of ringgit in property damages and damaging food crops.

In response, subsequent administrations to formulate climate policies that analysts said are mostly centered on mitigation and carbon emissions, but often failing to account for adaptation and financing for damages and losses.

Malaysia’s coastal cities and towns also face dangers from rising sea water levels, a hazard KRI said has not been dealt with properly in Putrajaya’s climate policy.

"Malaysia is a highly coastal country with 70 per cent of its population in coastal zones. Critical economic infrastructure such as Port Klang, Malaysia’s international trading gateway, lie in areas at risk of sea-level rise (but) research is lacking on the quantification of adaptation interventions needed as opposed to modelling of impacts,” it said.

The disappointing outcome from COP29 came as more climate analysts and policymakers from developing nations have become sceptical that the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming target would be met, which they blamed on continued geopolitical tension and rich countries’ evasive attitude towards decarbonisation.