KLUANG, Sept 29 — Barisan Nasional’s (BN) decisive victory in the Mahkota state by-election yesterday sends a clear message: narrow politics, rhetoric and emotional appeals hold little sway among Johoreans.

Senior Political Science lecturer at Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) Mujibu Abd Muis, said BN’s majority of 20,648 votes indicates weak support for Perikatan Nasional (PN) in Johor, primarily due to its outdated campaign strategies.

"Johor is an open and progressive state where such politics are not well-received, unlike the more conservative and traditional Malay Belt states. PN’s campaign approach was predictable and failed to resonate with voters.

"Campaigns should align with local demographics, as voter psychology varies. In Johor, fresh ideas are essential. To win over mixed constituencies, the focus must shift to broader issues rather than identity-based politics,” he told Bernama when contacted.

Mujibu also highlighted BN’s decision to field Kluang UMNO Youth chief Syed Hussien Syed Abdullah, a young and fresh candidate, as a sign of UMNO’s internal reforms under President Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi following the 15th general election. These reforms are now yielding positive results.

Although introducing a new face in the by-election might seem unpopular and risky in the short term, it is gradually helping to eliminate the party’s ‘warlord’ culture, which bodes well for UMNO’s long-term future.

"If this trend continues, and UMNO becomes bolder in fielding more young and capable candidates, including women, the party will regain support and grow stronger as the next general election approaches,” he added.

Meanwhile, Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi, a sociopolitical analyst at Universiti Malaya’s Centre for Democracy and Elections (UMCEDEL), shared similar sentiments, noting that BN’s significant victory reflects voter rejection of PN’s heavy reliance on religious and ethnic rhetoric in its political messaging.

He explained that this approach has created the perception that the opposition is too focused on divisive narratives, risking alienation of moderate and multi-ethnic voters, particularly in Johor, a state known for its urban and progressive stance.

The last-minute attacks on Syed Hussien during the campaign, according to Awang Azman, were outdated and desperate political tactics aimed at undermining his credibility and reputation, but they ultimately backfired.

"Whether such tactics succeed depends on how voters assess the credibility of the revelations – do they see them as cheap political stunts for attention or just political manipulation?

"If the public perceives PN’s actions as baseless attacks, it could harm their image, especially in Johor’s stable political environment, where voters are becoming more discerning,” he said.

Awang Azman also noted that BN’s narrative in the by-election was more constructive and focused on development policies such as economic growth, infrastructure improvements and public welfare, demonstrating an understanding of the demographics in the area they were targeting.

The victory should also be credited to Ahmad Zahid, who successfully ensured collaboration between BN and Pakatan Harapan (PH), which was reflected in the grassroots support for both parties at the ballot box.

Regarding the low voter turnout of 53.84 per cent, compared to nearly 58 per cent in the 2022 state election, Awang Azman attributed the decline to a significant number of outstation voters and the confidence of those who anticipated a BN victory.

Meanwhile, Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said that yesterday’s victory reflects growing confidence among the Malay community in UMNO, marking the second success following the Nenggiri by-election in Kelantan last August.

"In my view, these two consecutive large majorities signal that UMNO is nearly recovering from previous internal tensions, which had led some members to support the opposition by aligning with PN,” he said.

Mazlan emphasised the collaboration between BN and PH voters, who remained loyal to their parties in supporting the Unity Government’s candidate, highlighting the strength of the relationship between the two parties.

He added that the consolidation of these two coalitions, which began in earlier by-elections, will be crucial for the government moving forward to ensure continuity until the 16th general election.

"This cooperation appears genuine, as the Mahkota seat was previously won by PH in the 2018 general election. However, their supporters accepted the outcome and voted for the BN candidate, resulting in a significant majority without any signs of sabotage or dissatisfaction, instead showing full support,” he added.

In the Mahkota by-election, BN successfully retained the seat, with Syed Hussien winning decisively by a majority of 20,648 votes, receiving 27,995 votes - far surpassing PN’s Mohamad Haizan Jaafar, who garnered only 7,347 votes.

The Mahkota state seat has been contested since 2004 and has seen five elections, with four of them won by BN. — Bernama