KUALA LUMPUR, April 29 — Some ethnic Chinese voters could abstain from voting at the Kuala Kubu Baru by-election on May 11 as a form of protest against the DAP, amid talks of growing disenchantment among the community that was once a staunch backer of the Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) strongest component member.

Analysts said there is some truth to speculation that ethnic Chinese voters are frustrated by the controversies that involved Umno’s top leaders charged with corruption, undelivered institutional reform promises, as well as the Anwar government’s handling of issues fuelling religious tension.

Chinese voters, who make up about a third of Kuala Kubu Baru’s diverse electorate, had surprised observers by continuing to back PH in last year’s state elections despite predictions that many would be uneasy about the PH-Umno alliance.

But issues that have cropped up in the seven months since the Selangor state polls last August, could potentially upend the voting trend that had helped DAP become PH’s most formidable party, analysts said.

"I think the assumption is a fair one to make, buoyed by the rising disenchantment amongst some of PH’s core supporters towards the coalition over concerns that it has failed to deliver on promised reforms,” said Shazwan Mustafa Kamal, director at Vriens & Partners, a government affairs consultancy for public policy and political risk.

"A likelihood could possibly be a form of protest votes among PH supporters, just to test the waters and to make a statement in sending a message to PH.

"A low turnout may potentially result in a very closely fought by-election, with DAP/PH retaining with a much smaller majority as opposed to the 14th general election,” he added.

Some in the party agreed. Ong Kian Ming, the DAP’s former member of parliament for Bangi, said he estimated that voter turnout at the May 7 by-election would be lower across all ethnicities, and a significant number of ethnic Chinese and Indian voters could view the polls as unimportant since it won’t affect the stability of the Selangor state government.

"It would not be inaccurate to say that many DAP and PH supporters have been disappointed by the performance of the unity government in the slow pace of delivering institutional reform, in the weak economic narrative (even though FDI numbers and economic growth continue to be healthy),” he said.

"Especially with regards to increases in the cost of living and the cost of doing business, and in the public fights between some PH and BN leaders, especially in the recent weeks over the KK Mart ‘Allah’ socks issue.”

These factors could drive many to abstain from voting in a bid to send a protest message to the ruling coalition, Ong said.

The DAP politician also did not rule out the likelihood that some Chinese and Indian voters may even vote for the Opposition although he felt their numbers would be small.

Just a 5 per cent decrease in turnout from the Chinese, together with a lower than 50 per cent turnout from the Indian community, would be enough to hand the DAP a defeat, according to Ong’s estimates.

"If the turnout of the Chinese voters drops further to just above 50 per cent and the turnout of the Indian voters drop to 45 per cent, and the Malay support drops to just 15 per cent with the Chinese support at 85 per cent and Indian support at 75 per cent, the DAP will lose this seat by almost 2000 votes,” he said.

PH would retain the seat with an overall turnout of 58 per cent and if Chinese support reaches 90 per cent, Indian support 80 per cent and Malay support at just 20 per cent, Ong estimated.

James Chin, professor of Asian studies at the University of Tasmania, said Perikatan Nasional will likely play up the frustration towards Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s government, but believed this would not be effective in swaying ethnic minority voters to back a coalition that includes the Islamist PAS.

"It’s quite clear that the PN is trying to play (up) the unhappiness with the government... to send a strong signal to Anwar for neglecting the non-Malays,” he said.

"What about the Chinese? Yes, the Chinese are unhappy but if the candidate is from the DAP, it’s unlikely they are going to do a protest vote. Even if they are really unhappy, they might protest by boycotting the polls but to vote against the DAP is highly unlikely given the fact that they are afraid of PAS.”

Chin also believes the KKB by-election, like others before, will be won on local issues.

"I think the important thing to remember is that this will be a very localised election simply because voters understand the result (if PH loses) will not be the fall of the state government... so it will be fought on local issues and whether the DAP have been serving the area well,” he said.

The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent, Lee Kee Hiong, on March 21 due to cancer.

The Election Commission has set the polling day to be May 11.