KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 10 — The by-elections for the Pulai parliamentary seat and Simpang Jeram state seat in Johor ended yesterday with Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) unity coalition emerging victorious.

It was initially thought that Perikatan Nasional (PN) would sneak victories in both due to very low voter turnouts, but PH was able to defend the seats previously held by the late Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub.

Sentiment had been against PH-BN that were campaigning jointly again after the six state elections last month, a stark difference from when the two had been rivals during the Johor state election and general election last year.

How did PH and BN emerge with strong victories despite the low turnout?

Rejection of racial politics

Observers on the ground had said that Malays in Johor were likely to reject the communal politics that has become the approach of PN.

The turnout at PN ceramahs throughout the campaign had initially led many to believe it had managed to win over Malay voters, but this did not translate to votes on election day despite Umno supporters’ uneasiness with the unity government.

This was despite expectations of protest votes from Umno supporters unhappy with the leadership’s decision to ally the party with PH and form the national unity government.

Umno-BN still relevant in Johor

Despite BN’s dismal performance in the 15th general election, the victories in Pulai and Simpang Jeram showed that Umno and the former ruling coalition were still influential in Johor, especially in successfully convincing the Malay nationalist party’s supporters to vote for a former rival up until a year ago.

This was achieved against the backdrop of Umno supporters’ continued aversion towards DAP that was a partner in the national unity government and vice versa.

In the past, much of Amanah’s support in Pulai came from non-Malay voters who were PH supporters. The low voter turnout for the Pulai parliamentary constituency was likely due to residents who did not bother to take a day off to return to vote.

This also was likely an indicator that the non-Malay voters in the constituency were still unable to accept the collaboration between PH and BN.

Anticipating a drop in non-Malay votes for PH-BN, Umno-BN is believed to have redoubled efforts to ensure its support would transfer to the Amanah candidates who were representing the unity government.

In the 2022 general election, Salahuddin defended the Pulai seat with a 33,174-vote majority. His successor, Sulhaizan Kaiat, only managed to secure a majority of 18,641 yesterday.

However, in Simpang Jeram, located near Muar in north-west Johor, a non-urban seat, PH’s Nazri Abdul Rahman defended the seat with a larger majority of 3,514 in comparison to the 2022 Johor state election results where Salahuddin defended the seat with a 2,399 majority.

No bed of roses

Although PH-BN emerged victorious in both Pulai and Simpang Jeram, sentiment on the ground showed that neither commanded convincing support.

Observers on the ground indicated that Johor voters were unhappy with both PH and BN, and the low turnouts must be a wake-up call for party leaders.

In other words, PH-BN should not be comfortable with their performance in both the Pulai and Simpang Jeram seats. If anything, observers said it is time for all party leaders within the unity coalition to work towards rebuilding the people’s confidence.

As for PN, their presence in Johor remains uncertain, judging by the by-election results, the coalition still has much to work on if it actually wants to make serious dents to PH-BN unity coalition.

The by-elections for Pulai and Simpang Jeram were called following the death of Salahuddin on July 23 due to a brain haemorrhage. He was 61.

Salahuddin was the Amanah deputy president and had served as the domestic trade and cost of living minister.