KUALA LUMPUR, July 30 — The Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) has taken a bold step in charting a course for itself after being snubbed from joining Pakatan Harapan (PH): taking a stab at the state elections on its own, with an electoral pact with the Socialist Party of Malaysia (PSM).

In a series of press conferences, its president Syed Saddiq Abdul Rahman announced Muda’s candidates in batches. In total, the party will field 20 hopefuls, with the bulk of them — 14 candidates — will join in the race in Selangor.

By taking on both the alliance between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN), and Perikatan Nasional (PN), Muda is aiming to be a credible third force in offering check-and-balance towards the federal government coalition which it still supports.

Putting most of its eggs in the Selangor basket, will Muda put a dent in the country’s wealthiest state which has been administered by PH since 2008, then as Pakatan Rakyat?

Which seats are Muda putting its hopes on in Selangor?

BN was first ousted from Selangor in the 2008 state election, when the alliance of PKR, DAP and PAS won 36 out of the 56 seats in the state.

In the state elections since, PH has only strengthened its grip on the state. In 2018, the then alliance between PKR, DAP, Parti Amanah Negara and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia held a whopping 51 seats.

When the 2020 political crisis happened which saw the fall of the PH federal government, Selangor was one of the only four states that PH and Parti Warisan managed to keep. In total, the coalition lost half of their states.

This would be Muda’s first attempt at the Selangor state election after being formed in 2020.

It now only holds a Parliamentary seat in president Syed Saddiq’s Muar, and the Puteri Wangsa state seat in Johor won by deputy president Amira Aisya Abdul Aziz in the snap poll called in March last year.

During the 15th general election, its three other Parliamentary candidates — Danial Abdul Majeed (Kepala Batas), Siti Rahayu Baharin (Tanjong Karang) and Lim Wei Jiet (Tanjung Piai) — all faltered.

Its candidates in the Selangor state elections are as follows:

Almost all of them were seats held by PH, with the exception of Bukit Antarabangsa, which was held by Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali, who was previously part of PH but jumped ship to join PN and Bersatu.

This means that in 13 seats, Muda will be the third alternative between voters who are choosing between PH and PN.

The only exception will be in Dusun Tua, where PH has ceded the seat to be contested by BN, who is putting its candidate Johan Abd Aziz there.

DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke has said that PH will propose the party’s incumbent Banting assemblyman Lau Weng San to be made the Speaker for the State Assembly in return for giving Dusun Tua to BN.

In 11 of the seats, the incumbents had also won in 2018 by a comfortable margin of over 10,000 votes, with the exceptions being Kuala Kubu Bharu, Taman Templer and Bukit Antarabangsa.

Furthermore in Subang Jaya, DAP’s Michelle Ng had won by a whopping majority of over 48,000. She will be defending her seat.

Muda may need more time to leave lasting impact

The prospect of facing two massive and well-funded coalitions spells a bleak hope for the fledgling party, several political analysts have conceded.

Syaza Shukri, assistant professor of political science at International Islamic University Malaysia, told Malay Mail that despite Muda president Syed Saddiq’s court cases, the party itself is a fresh face with little else to attack.

"The best bet for me is Sentosa but even that is not a very high probability,” she said when asked about Muda’s chances in the Selangor elections next month.

She suggested that Muda does not have time on its side. It needs to survive longer for the public to know and trust it, she said.

Meanwhile, Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan told Malay Mail that Muda needs to decide on its target demographic.

"Well, the problem with Muda is that they’re trying to satisfy all quarters of people. Meaning that they’re not targeting the Malay or urban or younger generation of voters,” he said.

He suggested that Muda’s chances would lie in the seats where PN had made inroads into Selangor during the GE15.

In 2018, PAS — then in Gagasan Sejahtera — won only one, Sijangkang. Meanwhile, Bersatu which was then part of PH, won six.

On the other hand, Sunway University research analyst Wo Chang Xi cautioned that it is still too early to judge Muda.

"Based on the previous GE15, a two-week campaign period may be decisive to overturn some electoral outcomes.

"It will also depend on Muda’s local machinery (support given from the central and state branch, and the resources of each candidate) and campaign narrative in the next few weeks,” he said.

He said that Muda could still attract three different kinds of supporters: middle-ground voters, voters who are not planning to vote in the coming state election, and PH supporters.

But PH supporters may be a pragmatic bunch and will not be swayed to Muda if the party cannot woo the other two groups, he added.

"Regardless, the party lacks grassroots support as well as branches and divisions in its party structure,” said Universiti Utara Malaysia’s politics and international relations professor Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani.

"I do not think Muda has the chance of winning even a seat in Selangor,” he added.

However, he suggested that Muda could play the role of a spoiler in the fight between PH-BN against PN, explaining that the votes that go to a spoiler could have potentially gone towards assuring another party’s victory.

"Even Umno would not contest individually,” he said.

Bleakly, he suggested that Muda instead withdraws from contesting in the state elections and use the time to strengthen itself by choosing to hoist its sail to another coalition.

Selangor is one of the six states to hold state elections after GE15. The other five states are Negeri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.

The Election Commission announced early this month that the state elections will be held on August 12.