KUALA LUMPUR, July 4 — Political analysts can’t agree if the prospect of the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) joining Pakatan Harapan (PH) is all but over after the nascent party said it would contest in the state elections alone, a move that could pit the two supposed allies against each other.

Whether or not this confrontation could cause a dent in PH’s campaign is still up for debate.

Yet pundits generally agreed that Muda is a potential wild card. With young and first-time voters forming nearly half of the current electorate, enough to sway the polls’ outcome, Muda’s presence as an independent force in the race could spark an undercurrent capable of thwarting PH’s defence of the three states it governed.

"It’s very clear on the Perikatan side that they’re trying to collect any Tom, Dick and Harry to go against Anwar and the unity government, they’re trying to build a united front,” said James Chin, political analyst with the University of Tasmania, referring to the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition.

"The only logical thing to do for Anwar Ibrahim on his side is to build a coalition against PAS and Bersatu, in other words anyone against them, you should try to bring them under your big tent... Muda can get some votes and you don’t want to split the voters. Even if a few hundred in the marginal seats this can make a difference,” he added.

Muda’s decision to go solo in the six state elections was mostly borne out of frustration with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim whose coalition has been slow to respond to Muda’s request to formally join PH, according to its president and Muar MP Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman.

In a June 26 press conference, the party said it will use its own strength "to bring about a new political narrative to Malaysia”; the Muda leadership did not state if this would entail standing against PH.

One of the reasons often-cited for stalling Muda’s entry into PH appears to be a view of Syed Saddiq as a staunch supporter of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the former two-time prime minister.

Their close ties have fuelled allegations that Muda could be a "Trojan horse” even if the accusations have been mostly unsubstantiated.

Muda leaders have dismissed the claim as baseless, citing the decision to break away from Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, and later distanced itself from Parti Pejuang Tanahair, the nativist parties founded by Dr Mahathir.

Muda said it fights for progressive and multicultural politics. Despite being just a few years old, the party has garnered considerable support.

Its president is the sole federal lawmaker but has represented Muar for the second term.

In the 15th general election, Syed Saddiq then aged 29, trumped rivals with far more well-oiled machinery in a multi-cornered fight to defend his seat. At the Johor state polls in January 2022, lawyer and Muda secretary-general Amira Aisya Abdul Aziz won the Puteri Wangsa state legislative seat, surprising observers as she garnered more than 43 per cent of the votes despite being less well-known.

Still, Muda’s detractors argue that much of that support came from either PH supporters or neutral voters sympathetic to the coalition.

"I don’t think that Muda has such a strong support base, even in urban areas. PH supporters are not too fond of Muda, so they’re aiming for those on the fence. But getting these people requires a strong presence on the ground,” said Syaza Shukri, associate professor of political science at the International Islamic University of Malaysia.

"The concern is that their campaign will be based on what PH has failed to do so far. This might influence some fence-sitters. But it won’t be a pro-Perikatan Nasional campaign.”

Still, Syaza believes the chance of Muda and PH working together again isn’t entirely impossible.

"Of course this is early in the campaign period. In Malaysian politics things can change in a day,” she said.

Just how far Muda leaders would be willing to draw blood should it go against PH in the polls remains to be seen but the party’s leaders have always claimed to uphold "new politics”, which opposes personal attacks and character tainting.

This principle has found allies even among leaders in PH, especially the DAP, noted Shazwan Mustafa Kamal, associate director at Vriens & Partners, a risk consultancy.

"It would appear that ties within PH have been strained, especially PKR. DAP, however, remains somewhat warm towards Muda.

"The state elections would be interesting to gauge how Muda will fare solo, and for the PH or unity government it would be important to assess whether Muda is truly a third force to be taken seriously or the opposite,” he told Malay Mail.