KOTA KINABALU, Oct 21 — Sabah’s political scene has never been short of colour and the upcoming 15th general election is expected to be no different.

Few, if any, straight fights are anticipated, with Opposition Parti Warisan and Pakatan Harapan (PH) at loggerheads, and even seat negotiations between the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and Barisan Nasional (BN) ruling government seem to have hit a snag.

At the time of writing, negotiations between GRS and BN are at an impasse, with several seats still in contention, most in non-Muslim native-majority areas. The formula seems to be 13 seats for GRS and 12 for BN, but there are tussles for the Beluran and Beaufort seats, among others.

Both sides have previously said that they were prepared for a free-for-all in the event they cannot come to a deal, although leaders have insisted that they will pull through.

Warisan, first out of the gate, has announced its candidate for two seats — Sipitang and Kimanis — while GRS and BN have been mum on their seat-sharing formula, a seeming indication of the hurdles involved with having to appease all nine parties in their alliance.

Even before candidate announcements, there are already several hot seats emerging from the 25 parliamentary seats up for grabs in Sabah, and the following are the ones to watch, according to political observers.

Tuaran

Formerly a BN stronghold, the Muslim-Kadazan Dusun Murut (KDM) mix majority seat is currently held by former Upko president Datuk Madius Tangau, who left BN a mere day after GE14 to form the state government with Warisan.

But along with the fall of the Warisan Plus government during the September 2020 snap polls came the disintegration of Warisan’s relationship with PH and Upko.

Tangau, whose party is now with PH, is expected to defend his seat and will face a much tougher fight with former allies Warisan and GRS-BN.

Without Upko in its fold, GRS-BN will have to decide which party is better suited for the seat.

Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor, who is both GRS and Sabah Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia chairman, is one of the four assemblymen under the constituency, but the coalition will have to decide whether to contest the seat itself or give it to Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), who has two assemblymen in the constituency.

If PBS gets the seat, it might field Kiulu assemblyman Datuk Joniston Bangkuai, an up and comer who has been gaining popularity for his vocalness and championing of community-based tourism.

On the other hand, those on the ground say that PPBM, and Hajiji, has plans to field his son Mohd Ghazali in the seat.

The Tuaran parliamentary constituency consists of four state seats: Sulaman, Pantai Dalit, Tamparuli and Kiulu.

The other contender may be Warisan’s deputy Wirawati chief Joanna Henley Rampas.

A relative newcomer, Rampas contested the 2018 elections but lost to Bangkuai. In 2020, under the Warisan Plus government bloc, the seat was given to Upko’s Tangau to contest, but he also lost to Bangkuai.

Penampang

The heartland of the Kadazan has always seen colourful contests and this GE15 will see a new party president, deputy president, and vice-president all in contention.

Warisan’s deputy president Datuk Darell Leiking will likely meet new incoming Upko president Datuk Ewon Benedick who has said that Penampang may want to see new leadership.

Historically, the constituency has never stayed with one MP for more than two terms, and Leiking is at the end of his second term.

Voters here have also not shied away from knocking out political heavyweights, having voted out federal minister and Upko president Tan Sri Bernard Dompok twice, in favour of relatively unknown candidates.

In 1995, they punished him for leaving PBS and joining BN, while in 2013, voters decided they had enough of BN and voted in first-time candidate Darell, who was then in PKR.

Both PBS and later Upko, under BN, had held the seat for three terms each.

This year, BN may give the seat to GRS’s Party Solidariti Tanah Airku which is set to field vice-president Kenny Chua for the post.

Kota Marudu

A conventional PBS seat held by current president Datuk Seri Maximus Ongkili since it was created in 2004, this constituency in the northern district has received attention lately because of an unlikely contender.

An assistant minister to the chief minister, Datuk Wetrom Bahanda, announced he was leaving his cushy position in the ruling government to fulfil his ambition of contesting the seat.

As the former Umno Kota Marudu division chief and current PPBM chief, Wetrom had long stated his desire to represent the area and was given the opportunity to contest the new Bandau state constituency in the 2020 state election under a Perikatan Nasional (PN) ticket. He won with a majority of 3,363 and more than 58 per cent of the vote.

He had at first intended to run on a Warisan ticket, but even after meeting party president Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal, the latter welcomed him to the party but did not promise him the seat, only saying that he would be considered.

Wetrom has since then been photographed with Parti Kadazandusun Malaysia Sabah (Parti KDM) president Datuk Peter Anthony, allegedly joining his party in the hopes of contesting the seat.

As of October 19, he has yet to announce his decision.

Kota Belud

The incumbent, Isnaraissah Munirah Majilis of Warisan, a young first-time Opposition MP, will have to fight off one of two high-profile former federal ministers who have set their sights on the west coast seat.

The heartland of the Bajau, the Kota Belud seat has been in the family of Usukan assemblyman and former chief minister Datuk Seri Salleh Said Keruak for decades.

Salleh wants to win back the parliamentary seat which he lost in the 2018 election to his cousin Munirah.

His father, former governor Tun Mohamad Said Keruak, held the seat in 1971 for three terms until 1982, and Salleh, nicknamed "Prince of Usukan”, won it in 1995, also for three terms, until he was dropped to make way for in 2008 to make way for Rahman Dahlan.

Now, both want the chance to redeem themselves and observers are divided as to who among the two has a better chance of winning back the seat, although some say that local pedigreed boy Salleh has been working the ground hard since the state polls in 2020.

Umno sources say that the party favours Rahman Dahlan, a former minister in the Prime Minister’s Department, and an Umno supreme council member, to win back the seat after a disastrous loss in the Sepanggar constituency in 2018.

Kota Belud, a one-and-a-half-hour drive from Kota Kinabalu, has a majority of Bajau voters, along with some Dusun and Chinese.

Of its four state constituencies, Pintasanis held by PPBM, Tempasuk and Usukan are held by Umno, and Kadamaian is held by Upko.

Although it is considered a rural seat, many of its voters have migrated to the state capital and may have a more urban outlook.

Tenom

The interior district is one of around eight KDM, or non-Muslim native-majority seats that may see a good multi-cornered fight.

It is currently held by DAP’s Noorita Sual and has the distinction of being one of the only KDM seats that the national party has won.

The lawyer-turned-politician won with a small margin of 1,133 against BN’s Datuk Rubin Balang.

This time, competition will be tougher with a previous running mate, controversial businessman Datuk Peter Anthony, contesting under his own Parti KDM logo this time.

Peter’s popularity on the ground is evident, as he beat Umno’s Datuk Jamawi Jaafar and PBS’s Datuk Radin Malleh for the Melalap state seat in the 2020 state elections.

The seat may go to Umno, who might field Jamawi, or former Tenom MP Datuk Raime Unggi. If GRS gets the seat, they might put forward Balang, who has since joined PPBM.