KUCHING, Dec 17 — Sarawakians go to the polls tomorrow with Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) virtually assured of victory and become the first state-based coalition to retain control of the country’s largest state assembly.

There is little doubt that GPS would prevail and the only piece of the puzzle left is how many of the 82 seats they can capture after taking 72 in the previous 2016 election.

The answer lies on whether the opposition can flip enough seats to deny GPS a two-thirds majority. 

The first number to watch on polling night is 42 which will give GPS the simple majority and the next is two-thirds mark of 55 seats.

DAP and Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) are seen as the only credible opponents from the sea of opposition in the race but they are clashing in many areas and the vote split will give GPS the edge.

Observers seemed less enthusiastic of DAP this time as attention turns towards whether PSB can score any gains in their election debut under the leadership of the oldest but most seasoned candidate Datuk Seri Wong Soon Koh, 79, who was a former state minister. 

When the house was dissolved on November 3, GPS held 68 seats, PSB six, DAP five, Bersatu one and one Independent due to realignments particularly after the Sheraton Move that saw Pakatan Harapan replaced as the federal government, and Wong forming PSB with several incumbents from the 2016 polls.

Pujut does not have an assemblyman after a DAP winner was disqualified by the court due to dual citizenship.

 GPS comprises Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) led by Chief Minister Tan Sri Abang Johari Openg, Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS), Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP) and Progressive Democratic Party (PDP). A local observer predicted five seats to DAP and between five and six to PSB.

"The rest should go to GPS, I expect GPS to finish with 68 to 72 seats,” he said.

For Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at Singapore Institute of International Affairs, the only question left is the size of the GPS majority.

"DAP and PKR would be very lucky if they could retain their previous number of seats. PSB is likely to win a number of seats which could make them hard to be ignored politically,” said Oh.

Lee Kuok Tiung of Universiti Malaysia Sabah expects GPS to perform well because its Chinese component SUPP is stronger this time.

"Overall, GPS will gain more than a two-thirds majority to form the new Sarawak government. All four component parties are expected to deliver and there will be some interesting results in the Chinese-majority areas,” he said.

Jeniri Amir, senior fellow at the Malaysian Council of Professors (MPN), estimates GPS can swing 65 to 70 seats as the coalition can depend on strong support from the Bumiputera areas which tend to vote for the government.

"In the longhouses, the tuai rumah (longhouse chief) is the main opinion leader and the residents will normally follow him,” he said, adding that Abang Johari’s development initiatives are very compelling for the rural communities.

The polls will be decided by some 1.25 million voters. — Bernama