KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 7 — The Registrar of Societies’ (RoS) move to undo Umno’s postponement of its internal elections could give party president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi an advantage if he were to be challenged in the poll, according to analysts.

They said ordinary Umno members were likely to suspect the RoS decision yesterday to be politically motivated as it came directly after Zahid pulled his party’s support for the Perikatan Nasional (PN), they noted

This could end up giving Zahid sympathy votes in the event he is challenged for the party presidency in the poll, said Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Geostrategist Prof Dr Azmi Hassan. 

"ROS’ recent decision invalidating the postponement of Umno’s internal election can backfire not only on ROS but also on the government.

"If the polls were to be conducted, I think Zahid’s team will have an advantage because the Umno grassroot will observe that Zahid and his team are being victimised by the Perikatan Nasional government using a government agency,” he said.

Yesterday, the ROS announced that Umno’s decision to postpone its party polls by 18 months from June 30 was invalid, allegedly because this was decided in July when the office bearers three-year terms were already over.

It was also reported that the ROS directed Umno to hold its internal election and to inform the agency of the chosen dates as soon as possible.

Zahid won the Umno presidency in a three-way fight on June 30, 2018 and he would have faced a possible challenge had the election not been postponed.

Umno secretary-general Datuk Ahmad Maslan responded to the RoS announcement yesterday by noting that the party informed the agency of the postponement on June 24, before the expiry of the office bearers’ terms on June 30.

Earlier yesterday, Umno vice president Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob had led a group of Barisan Nasional lawmakers to publicly pledge support for Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin to remain as the prime minister, in apparent defiance of the Umno decision to abandon PN.

While Ismail Sabri said there were 31 BN MPs in the group, at least three of those listed have denied they supported PN, including Wanita Umno chief Datuk Seri Noraini Ahmad who also resigned as the higher education minister shortly after.

Azmi said the sequence of events would only bolster Zahid’s position, as it would support the latter’s claim that PN no longer possessed the simple majority needed to remain the government of the day.

"If Zahid conducts the internal polls and if Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri puts up his candidacy and Zahid is defending his position, I think sympathy will be more on Zahid in this case,” he said.

Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) political science professor Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid said the RoS announcement would be seen as an attempt to put pressure on Zahid but could instead do the opposite.

He said Umno members could instead rally around him and reject those outside his camp for fear that the poll could be an attempt to install a new line-up of leaders who were pro-Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu).

Zahid’s detractors should also not underestimate his level of support among Umno grassroots notwithstanding his instability to convince all his party’s lawmakers to reject PN en masse, Ahmad Fauzi said.

He noted that several Umno MPs were quick to deny they were among the group Ismail Sabri presented as supportive of PN as well as emphasise that they were loyal to the party and would abide by its decision to withdraw support for Muhyiddin.

However, he noted there would always be suspicion in Umno about the party’s decision to withdraw support from PN so long as Zahid was the president.

Muhyiddin alluded to this in a special address on Wednesday when he claimed unnamed politicians were trying to cause instability in his government because he would not intervene in their criminal cases.

"It is like the ‘Sword of Damocles’ hanging over [Zahid’s] head, making him less appealing than the pro-Bersatu faction in Umno.

"He would do Umno a favour by voluntarily taking a back seat in party and national affairs until his court cases conclude. Should he be acquitted of all charges, there is no reason why he couldn't make a comeback,” he said.

Zahid is on trial for dozens of corruption, abuse and money-laundering charges stemming from his time as home minister in the Najib administration.

Senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs Oh Ei Sun said that aside from the obvious perception that Umno was being selectively targeted through RoS’ action, Zahid would also enjoy the incumbent’s advantage against would-be challengers.

However, he said the biggest flaw in the suspected plan to remove Zahid via the internal elections was that the decision to abandon PN was not the party president’s alone but what the last Umno General Assembly decided.

"The more pertinent point is that even if somebody who is not Zahid wins this party election, I think the decision to withdraw support (for PN) actually enjoys a lot of support among the grassroot as well as rank and file and supreme council,” he said.

Earlier this week, Zahid said enough of his party’s MPs have signed a declaration withdrawing support for PN to deny it the simple majority needed to remain the government of the day.

On Wednesday, Muhyiddin announced that a confidence vote will be tabled in the Dewan Rakyat when it convenes in September, after insisting that he possessed statutory declarations from MPs expressing support for him to remain as the PM.