KUALA LUMPUR, March 2 — Malaysia’s crisis, triggered by the fall of the Pakatan Harapan administration, is far from over as the political realignment has also put several state governments on the brink of change.

While Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Perikatan Nasional have won the race for federal power for now, the fates of the Perak, Kedah, and Melaka state governments are all up in the air.

These had maintained the status quo despite Bersatu’s exit from PH as it had not yet allied with former rivals in Perikatan and was assumed to still support PH on the basis of confidence and supply.

With the formation of Perikatan, however, that safety net has been removed.

Johor has already provided a preview of the likely outcome from the new alliance, with Perikatan parties seizing control of the state and Umno’s Datuk Hasni Mohammad sworn in as the new mentri besar yesterday after they were able to convince the state ruler of their support.

Perak is in a similar position as PH’s command of the 59-seat assembly would fall to just 28 if the two Bersatu assemblymen including Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Ahmad Faizal Azumu declare for Perikatan. Thirty seats are needed for a simple majority.

PH will also lose control of Melaka as it only has the smallest majority — 15 seats — necessary to be the state government. In the event the two Bersatu assemblymen band with the state Umno and its 13 seats, they would have the numbers to take over the administration.

The situation is similar in Kedah where PH is the state government with the barest of majorities, holding 19 of the 36 state assembly seats, six of which belong to Bersatu.

The change of control in the Kedah government will be painfully familiar for the current mentri besar, Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir, who is on track to suffer the ignominy of being sacked twice from the role.

When his father, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, previously launched his offensive against Datuk Seri Najib Razak, Mukhriz was among the first casualties of the fallout and was forced to resign as the MB of Kedah in 2016 after Umno’s assemblyman withdrew their support for him.

While he is still the MB at the moment, Bersatu are expected to move against those who are not on board with the party’s switch from Dr Mahathir to Muhyiddin.

With almost a supermajority in Kedah, Perikatan can drop Mukhriz without any risk to their control of the state.

The PH government in Negri Sembilan should be unaffected as there are no Bersatu representatives in the state assembly there.

Both PH strongholds of Selangor and Penang appear safe for the time being as Bersatu did not contribute significantly to the defence of both states in 2018.

Outwardly in Selangor, PH still enjoys a two-thirds majority in the assembly even without Bersatu’s six elected representatives including former PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Azmin Ali, who is the Bukit Antarabangsa assemblyman.

Complicating matters in Selangor, however, is the fact that Azmin was the state MB prior to his appointment as economic affairs minister and is believed to still wield considerable influence in the state and over its officials.

PKR has already sacked Gombak Setia assemblyman Hilman Idham, an Azmin loyalist, further reducing its representation in Selangor.

Matters in Penang are significantly clearer as PH all but wiped out the Opposition in the previous general election, taking 37 of the state’s 40 seats. The departure of the two Bersatu representatives will have no effect on the balance of power there.

While the number of Bersatu lawmakers is indisputable, where their allegiances lie is less certain. Dr Mahathir’s camp in the party is seeking to convince supporters and sympathisers that he was betrayed and could still sway some of them to his side.

After a week of uncertainty and political intrigue, Muhyiddin emerged as the unexpected victor in what was initially thought to be a power struggle between Dr Mahathir and PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

Muhyiddin was sworn in as the eighth prime minister of Malaysia yesterday but his position is not yet secure. PH are planning to test his level of support via a motion of no-confidence at the earliest opportunity in Parliament.

Allegiances also continue to shift as some of the lawmakers who declared for Muhyiddin and Dr Mahathir continue to alter their positions, making it difficult to conclusively determine who has the support they claim short of an open vote.