KUALA LUMPUR, March 19 — At a casual glance, the upcoming Rantau by-election seems to be a pretty straightforward contest.

Both Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) have announced their candidates weeks ahead of the March 30 nomination day, with polling set for April 13.

Representing PH is PKR’s Datuk Dr S. Streram, who was previously denied entry into the nomination centre when he ran during the 14th general election which ultimately led to Umno acting president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan’s uncontested win. This was later nullified by an Election Court.

The state seat is in Negri Sembilan, with a sizeable 27 per cent Indians out of 20,472 registered voters. Fifty-three per cent are Malays, while 18 per cent are Chinese.

A win for either coalition won’t change anything in terms of political representation, as it is not a federal parliamentary seat, and PH already controls 20 out of the 36 seats in the state assembly.

But as PH licks its wounds from two back-to-back by-election losses and as Umno searches for leadership in order to steer the embattled opposition coalition BN, the timing of the Rantau by-election could not have come at a more opportune moment.

Politicians and analysts believe that the fight for the semi-urban state seat is crucial in terms of a political standpoint, as it will potentially affect the futures of both coalitions.

Rasah PKR branch chief Ismail Ahmad feels it will be a tough contest for Dr Streram (pic), going against a veteran like Mohamad in a state where the latter is considered a household name.. — Picture by Firdaus Latif

Who’s the underdog?

Sivamurugan Pandian, political analyst with Universiti Sains Malaysia, believes that at the moment, Dr Streram is the underdog in the race, as he is facing Mohamad, a businessman-turned-politician who has held the seat for almost three terms and was Negri Sembilan mentri besar from 2004 till GE14.

"PH is the underdog as Tok Mat has served the constituency for almost three terms and was the MB as well. He was well accepted in his constituency and developed the area too.

"As for Dr Streram, he is the co-ordinator and will have to convince the voters he is the better choice for the government of the day if that matters to the voters,” he told Malay Mail.

For Umno, Sivamurugan said that a win in Rantau will boost their moral legitimacy and strengthen Mohamad’s position within the Malay party, and eventually pave the way for him to officially take over the president’s role from the embattled Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

"For BN, a win will boost their moral legitimacy and strengthen Tok Mat’s position within party. Also, the opposition solidarity may continue despite the fact PAS is not the kingmaker here as how they were in Cameron Highlands and Semenyih,” he said, referring to the voter breakdown in Rantau.

Rasah PKR branch chief Ismail Ahmad feels it will be a tough contest for Dr Streram, going against a veteran like Mohamad in a state where the latter is considered a household name.

But he said PH’s campaign on the state and local level will be to "debunk” claims that Mohamad was a faultless MB, and show the latter’s administration had unaddressed shortcomings.

"An outsider can come here and focus on Mohamad’s past achievements, but we have been the opposition in this state for a long time.

"We saw many weaknesses which should have been resolved, but were not, such as the previous government’s promise for low cost housing which was not delivered,” the Labu state assemblyman told Malay Mail.

Ismail added that the by-election will be an opportunity for PH to bury Mohamad’s political career (should he lose) and with that, put a spanner in Umno’s leadership succession plan.

"A loss will definitely affect Umno,” he said.

Lim Teck Ghee, director of Centre for Policy Initiatives, believes that although PH is the underdog in this by-election, the stakes are higher for Umno/ BN.

"If Mohamad loses, he will be on his way out and Umno will have to look for a replacement leader. A win will see him holding on to his position, but he is still leader of a much diminished party with only 37 MPs in Parliament.

"Even if he wins, he will be faced with a possible further exodus of state and parliamentary members as the pressure of 1MDB and other BN-related scandals continue; and the euphoria of the marriage with PAS dies off,” he told Malay Mail.

Umno Youth chief Datuk Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki told Malay Mail that the 'Tok Mat' brand, referring to Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan (pic), in Rantau is more well-known than that of Umno, which is something the party will rely on during campaigning. — Picture by Firdaus Latif

Getting the ‘right’ narrative across

But for Umno, the task is quite clear — the party plans to cash in on Mohamad’s popularity and scandal-free image in the state for a trifecta win, and with it send a message that the party is not on its way out and that its alliance with PAS will secure the Malay vote for future elections.

"He (Mohamad) has done a lot for Rantau people. During my visit last Wednesday, I could see from the interaction of people that they still love Tok Mat… he is not only humble, he never misses meeting up with the people, not just Muslims but Chinese and Indians as well,” Umno Youth chief Datuk Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki told Malay Mail.

Asyraf even admitted that the "Tok Mat” brand in Rantau is more well-known than that of Umno, which is something the party will rely on during campaigning.

"The Tok Mat factor is more prominent than the party factor. They (constituents) would prefer to wear Tok Mat’s T-shirt,” he said, referring to T-shirts of the Umno acting president which were given out during GE14.

"For BN, we rely on Tok Mat’s popularity and contribution,” he added.

And just like Semenyih, the Umno man said that Rantau will be a referendum for voters to "reflect and manifest their grievances” towards the PH government.

While BN’s by-election message is clear, PH appears to be struggling to find one.

PH leader and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) strategist Datuk Rais Hussin said that PH has failed to learn from their twin losses in Semenyih and Cameron Highlands, or to take heed of the urgent need to explain to voters about why some manifesto promises have yet to be delivered.

He lamented that till today, PH has yet to improve on its communication strategy and has instead allowed some ministers to make silly remarks about "flying cars”, in an apparent jibe at Entrepreneur Development Minister Datuk Seri Mohd Redzuan Md Yusof’s recent announcement that Malaysia will develop a flying car.

"Rantau is going to be tough for PH, a 50-50 chance. Recent election results do not favour PH. People on the ground have not felt the positive effects of our policies.

"People need to be convinced and we have yet to establish a manifesto committee. In Semenyih, when I talked to people. they say ‘we have trouble putting food on the table but you are talking about piring terbang’,” he told Malay Mail.

Rais added that he was not surprised PH lost Semenyih because the coalition lacked a proper narrative, and still has not found one.

"When we are not doing enough, the opposition’s narrative becomes the dominant narrative,” he said.

The Anwar factor?

All eyes will also be on PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as he is expected to help the campaign for Rantau where a win will be more symbolic, since he is now a Negri Sembilan federal lawmaker in Port Dickson.

There were claims during the Semenyih by-election that Anwar did not lend his full support to PPBM, which has since been refuted by PKR.

But a win in Rantau would add a feather to his cap and help convince critics that the prime minister-in-waiting can mobilise support to get things done.

"This is Anwar’s first challenge as PKR president. Let us give him a chance to showcase his leadership, and he has also thrown his full support behind Dr Streram,” said Rasah PKR branch chief Ismail.

Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said that Anwar’s critics within PH would likely use the results of the Rantau by-election to question Anwar’s leadership, should Dr Streram lose to Mohamad.

"A miraculous win, on the other hand, would of course be beneficial to Anwar, as he similarly will not let go of the opportunity to claim political credit and thereby display his ‘readiness’ to take over the premiership,” Oh said.