KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 18 — Medical spending of the people in China is projected to increase by almost 100 billion yuan (RM59.9 billion) thanks to of a shift in diet towards consuming more animal products.

Researchers found that between 1992 and 2021, Chinese dietary changes – characterised by moving from a primarily grain-based diet to incorporating more animal products – are associated with greater food-borne health expenditure.

The trend reflected globally, is expected to continue in the coming decades, according to their paper published in Nature’s Humanities and Social Science Communications peer-reviewed journal on September 14, reported South China Morning Post.

"With China’s population shifting toward a high-protein, high-fat dietary structure, food-borne personal medical cash expenditures will increase by 95.28 billion yuan in 2030,” the team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Central China Normal University wrote.

While food-related per capita healthcare spending is projected to fall, state financial and total healthcare expenditure is expected to rise by 18.76 billion yuan and 17.67 billion yuan respectively, according to the paper.

The increased investment in healthcare as a result of dietary burden was "hindering the economic progress of the country and its residents toward affluence.”

China is the world’s largest consumer market for meat, however in per capita meat consumption it still significantly lags behind countries such as the United States and Australia.

Meat consumption is rising in China, making not only meeting demand and protecting the environment a concern, but one that now haunts the health and medicine sectors.

"Research showed that 26 per cent of global preventable deaths are attributed to poor diet, surpassing other risk factors such as smoking.

"Our findings reveal that plant-based foods, such as grains and vegetables, contribute significantly to healthcare savings, whereas animal-based foods, including meat and oil, are generally linked to higher healthcare costs.”

The team first examined the evolution of the Chinese diet and its effect on health spending over the past 30 years – using food consumption data classified into eight categories – grains, vegetables, fruit, eggs, dairy products, aquatic products, meat and oilseeds – as well as national healthcare spending.

Medical expenditure from 2020 and 2021 were not included in the analysis because of the influence of the Covid-19 pandemic.

"Compared to the balanced dietary pattern recommended by the Chinese Dietary Guidelines 2022, the Chinese dietary structure exhibits limited variety in grain intake, insufficient vegetable and fruit consumption, and excessive intake of livestock and meat.”

Alongside comparisons with countries with similar characteristics, such as Japan, to estimate China’s rate of change, the team then projected the future diet healthcare model for China.

The projections showed that the Chinese diet would continue to shift towards eating fewer grains and more oil and meat, which would lead to increased disease burdens and, therefore, healthcare expenditure.

"In the context of China’s healthcare system development and reform, transitioning to a plant-based diet will be crucial for reducing personal costs and optimising medical expenditure,” stated the researchers.