LONDON, March 23 ― Euro zone government bond yields fell today after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but signalled that they are unlikely to climb much higher, given the turmoil in global banking.
The Fed hiked rates to a 4.75 per cent to 5 per cent range yesterday. Accompanying projections showed most officials expect rates to peak at 5 per cent to 5.25 per cent and to end 2024 considerably lower.
Germany's 2-year yield, which is highly sensitive to expectations for European Central Bank policy, fell more than 12 bps in early European trading to 2.624 per cent. It was last 8 bps lower at 2.626 per cent.
“Bond yields in Europe are falling in sympathy with their US peers after the Fed dropped strong hints that we are nearing the end of its hiking cycle,” said Antoine Bouvet, senior rates strategist at Dutch bank ING.
“This isn't so sure for the ECB but markets are, rightly to an extent, trading like there is a strong read across from Fed to ECB policy.”
The US 2-year yield was down 1 bp at 3.971 per cent, having dropped 20 bps yesterday. Yields move inversely to prices.
Bond yields have swung wildly ― although the overall direction has been down ― over the last two weeks as cracks have emerged in the global banking system.
The collapse of US lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank shocked markets earlier this month, only to be followed by UBS' emergency takeover of its ailing rival Credit Suisse in Europe.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, seen as a benchmark for the bloc, fell 5 bps to 2.28 per cent today. It stood at an 11-year high of 2.77 per cent at the start of March.
Italy's equivalent yield was down 3 bps to 4.15 per cent. That took the closely watched gap between German and Italian 10-year borrowing costs to 186 bps.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said yesterday that she has not considered “blanket insurance” of US banking deposits.
“That can be maybe used as an explanation for risk-off (sentiment) and Germany becoming more expensive today,” said Jussi Hiljanen, head of rates strategy at SEB, a bank.
Central banks keep hiking
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said yesterday that stresses in the banking sector could dampen lending and have a significant impact on the US economy, reducing the need for the central bank to raise rates further to tame inflation.
Today, the Swiss National Bank raised interest rates by 50 bps, to 1.5 per cent, despite the banking turmoil.
The Bank of England is due to set interest rates later in the day. Traders expect a 25 bp hike ― taking rates to 4.25 per cent ― after data showed inflation unexpectedly jumped in February.
ECB policymakers yesterday said they saw few signs of any crisis brewing in euro zone banks. The central bank last week raised interest rates by 50 bps to 3 per cent.
Ignazio Visco, governor of the Bank of Italy, said the ECB should be “very prudent” with monetary policy, saying it is “crucial” to avoid a full-blown credit crunch. ― Reuters
