KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 17 — As Umno and PAS formalise their political pact with a charter on Saturday, political analysts said that the two parties would still need present a “holistic package” to attract non-Malays to support their Malay-Islamist union.
They said the two former rivals cannot just bank on Malay-Muslim voters in rural seats, but also convince the minorities and their own allies, before they could think about unseating Pakatan Harapan (PH) from Putrajaya in the 15th general election (GE15).
“Depending on rural Malays, will not help them to win federal power. As for now, Umno-PAS will have to gather support via Barisan Nasional-PAS in order to win the non-Malays’ support,” Universiti Sains Malaysia's political analyst Sivamurugan Pandian told Malay Mail.
“We know it’s divided between Malay and non-Malay voters, yet Umno-PAS might have to create a new package for the coming general election as a supplement to the charter that comprises the needs, demands and mindset of all Malaysians with Malay-Islam as the base as stipulated in our Constitution.”
The professor also said he expects to see an intense fight across Malay-majority seats in the run-up to the next general election that has to be called by 2023.
“Provided seat allocation are not challenged or sabotaged, we will see intense fights in some states. Most importantly, both have to convince voters at the grassroots level to vote for their candidate, regardless from BN or PAS,” he said.
Umno and Barisan Nasional suffered a shocking defeat during the 14th general election, while PAS became worse off compared to when it had joined Pakatan Rakyat, which then became PH.
Now, they are eyeing 119 Malay-majority seats in Peninsular Malaysia, with an agreement to not contest in the same seat.
In the last elections, both parties had a combined popular vote of some 4.3 million out of 11.6 million registered voters in the 14th general election (GE14).
Both parties are reported to have roughlt 70 per cent of the Malay votes, compared to only 30 per cent for PH.
“Even though Umno-PAS might have enough seats from peninsula, the new deal should also look for a formula to include Sabah and Sarawak. I’m uncertain at this point if it’s enough to win federal because it may include protest vote and class factor as well, besides race and religion,” he said.
Meanwhile Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s analyst Azmi Hassan predicted that Umno and PAS could rally up to 96 seats, which may prove to be a formidable challenge to PH.
“Taking stock of 47 seats Umno won in peninsula plus the seven in Sabah and also two by MIC and one by MCA, which was won with Umno's support. So in total Umno has 57 seats. With PAS having 18 seats this would make a total of 75 seats that can be secured by both parties come GE15.
“Based on GE14 results, there are at least 21 Parliamentary seats where the number of votes gained by Umno and PAS were more than what PH received.
“The 96 seats are not enough to form a government, but these are considered secured seats under the Umno-PAS alliance,” he said.
However, Azmi also agreed that the pact needs to appeal to a broader audience if they wish to effectively form the next federal government.
He also pointed out that the Umno-PAS coalition could revert several state government into their control, based on GE14 results.
“Using similar assumptions, there are 45 extra state seats that can be easily won by Umno and PAS, with Selangor and Penang topping the list with nine seats, Kedah and Perak with eight seats respectively, Johor with six seats, Melaka and Negri Sembilan with two each and one seat in Perlis seat.
“With that figures Kedah and Perak is as good as gone for PH meanwhile for Neeri Sembilan and Melaka, PH looks very shaky and can go either way,” he said.
However, these numbers could be adversely affected by newer voters coming into play in GE15, the analysts suggested.
Political analyst Hoo Ke Ping said if GE15 were to take place in 2023, there will be an additional 7 million new voters ― with 6.3 million of them being Malays.
For Hoo, based on the current political and social issues that have purportedly caused uneasiness among the Malay community, they might find Umno-PAS as a viable alternative to PH.
“Mind you, most of these voters are in the rural area. Many perceived that the current PH government does not priorities the needs of the Malay community.
“With employment being cut across the board, lack of a holistic financial and economic policies to help the nation grow, this could negatively affect PH.
“Many will revert back to PAS and Umno, the latter of which many still regarded as the traditional defender of the Malay community who have repeatedly upheld public sector jobs for Malays,” he said.
However, Azmi said that both coalitions would have to work hard in the next few years to woo the new generation of voters, who will likely determine the outcome of GE15.
“I do believe that the 18 to 21-years-old voters effect will be far much greater compared to the Umno-PAS alliance as votes gained by both parties from their core supporters is already saturated.
“Umno and PAS need to reach out to this new range of voters and must work really hard to convince that their alliance is good for the younger voters,” he said.
